UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues on the prelims with a fight between Nurullo Aliev and Shaqueme Rock in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Aliev-Rock prediction and pick.
Nurullo Aliev (10-0) enters UFC Qatar undefeated, with his last two outings showcasing dominant wrestling and control. He most recently out-grappled Joe Solecki to a unanimous decision win, and before that, he edged Rafael Alves on the cards—proving his grinding top game as he comes into his fight this weekend against Shaqueme Rock.
Shaqueme Rock (12-1-1) rides a four-fight win streak, most recently edging Attila Korkmaz by split decision and submitting Jaroslav Pokorny in the first round with a rear-naked choke. The Liverpool native showcases slick grappling and finishing instincts as he comes into his fight this weekend against Nurullo Aliev.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar odds: Nurullo Aliev-Shaqueme Rock odds
Nurullo Aliev: -290
Shaqueme Rock: +235
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Nurullo Aliev will win
- Last Fight: (W) Joe Solecki – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 2 (2 KO/TKO)
Nurullo Aliev is well-positioned to remain undefeated at UFC Qatar thanks to his relentless grappling pressure and elite wrestling base. He’s proven his ability to tire out and control dangerous opponents, showcasing suffocating top control and consistent takedowns in every UFC outing so far.
Shaqueme Rock is a slick submission artist, but Aliev’s positional awareness and tight control make it difficult for opponents to set up offense from their backs. Aliev’s cardio allows him to push a hard pace for three rounds, repeatedly grounding his foes and stifling their striking or grappling transitions.
On the feet, Aliev keeps it basic but effective, using his jab and forward pressure to close the distance and shoot for takedowns. His undefeated record features recent wins over proven competitors like Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves, which further validates his status as an emerging contender at lightweight.
Rock’s best path is to find a submission opening or land something big in a scramble, yet Aliev’s control and composure will be the deciding factor. Expect Aliev to grind out another convincing decision, smothering Rock’s offense as he imposes his game at UFC Qatar.
Why Shaqueme Rock will win
- Last Fight: (W) Attila Korkmaz – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0-1
- Finishes: 11 (2 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Shaqueme Rock has the tools to shock the unbeaten Nurullo Aliev at UFC Qatar by leaning into his dynamic submission game and unpredictable attacks. His four-fight win streak highlights his ability to capitalize on openings, especially with his recent first-round submission over Jaroslav Pokorny and a gritty decision win over Attila Korkmaz.
Aliev’s approach relies on overwhelming opponents with wrestling, but Rock’s guard is among the most active, making him dangerous even when taken down. If Aliev leaves his neck exposed during a shot or lingers in a scramble, Rock’s history of opportunistic finishes could turn the tide instantly.
On the feet, Rock’s movement and striking unpredictability add another layer of risk for Aliev. The Liverpool native thrives in transitions and can create chaos with sharp elbows or threatening submissions, forcing his opponent out of their comfort zone.
With momentum and confidence behind him from his Oktagon success, Rock enters the Octagon hungry and unburdened by the pressure of a perfect record. If he fights loose and aggressive, Rock has a real path to finish or upset Aliev at UFC Qatar.
Final Nurullo Aliev-Shaqueme Rock prediction & pick
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock promises a fascinating battle of grappling dominance versus submission danger at UFC Qatar. Aliev brings his undefeated record and relentless wrestling, looking to grind out another win with suffocating top control and a clear ability to neutralize explosive lightweights.
Rock, however, enters on a four-fight win streak, boasting a dangerous guard and a knack for capitalizing on small mistakes—his finishing instincts have been on full display during his rapid Oktagon rise. If Aliev gets overconfident in Rock’s guard or gets caught in a scramble, Rock’s submissions remain a very real threat.
On the feet, both men are still developing, but Rock’s unpredictability and movement could be a factor if he keeps it standing for significant stretches. Still, Aliev’s discipline, pace, and strength of schedule give him the edge in dictating where the fight takes place.
Expect Rock to push for early guillotine or triangle attempts, but Aliev’s smothering style and positional awareness should allow him to grind out another decision win. Nurullo Aliev gets the win by unanimous decision after three grueling rounds at UFC Qatar.
Final Nurullo Aliev-Shaqueme Rock Prediction & Pick: Nurullo Aliev (-290), Over 2.5 Rounds (-188)
