UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues on the prelims with a fight between Ryan Loder and Ismail Naurdiev in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Loder-Naurdiev prediction and pick.
Ryan Loder (7-2) enters UFC Qatar coming off a first-round TKO loss to Azamat Bekoev but showed his ground-and-pound skills with a TKO win over Robert Valentin before that. The 34-year-old “Man of Steel” mixes Division I wrestling with relentless pressure as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ismail Naurdiev.
Ismail Naurdiev (24-8) comes off a unanimous decision loss to Jun Yong Park in June but previously earned a hard-fought decision win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308. The 29-year-old Austrian striker blends explosive movement with sharp kicks and counters as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ryan Loder.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar odds: Ryan Loder-Ismail Naurdiev odds
Ryan Loder: +114
Ismail Naurdiev: -135
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -120
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Why Ryan Loder will win
- Last Fight: (L) Azamat Bekoev – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 (5 KO/TKO)
Ryan Loder’s route to victory at UFC Qatar relies on leveraging his elite wrestling pedigree and relentless top pressure. With a background as a Division I wrestler, Loder excels at timing his entries, chaining takedowns, and using heavy ground-and-pound to sap his opponents’ energy and control the pace of the fight.
Ismail Naurdiev may be a dynamic striker, but Loder’s blueprint is to shut down the Austrian’s kicking game by crowding him, initiating clinches, and driving him to the mat. If he can keep Naurdiev pinned, Loder’s patient approach and riding ability could prevent explosive scrambles, forcing the striker to defend rather than attack.
Loder has showcased his finishing instincts on the ground, demonstrated convincingly in his TKO win over Robert Valentin, and he has the physicality to impose his will for three hard rounds. Even after a setback against Bekoev, Loder’s experience and hunger for redemption will fuel a focused effort in Doha.
If Loder mixes in enough takedown attempts to keep Naurdiev guessing and avoids getting stuck at range, his path to a grinding decision or even late stoppage becomes very real. Expect Loder to dictate position and tempo as he chases a signature win at UFC Qatar.
Why Ismail Naurdiev will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jun Yong Park – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 18 (12 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Ismail Naurdiev can upset Ryan Loder at UFC Qatar by leveraging his superior striking defense, speed, and well-rounded skill set. Naurdiev absorbs just 1.77 significant strikes per minute compared to Loder's 2.51, while also defending 64 percent of strikes compared to Loder's 50 percent—showing his ability to avoid damage and frustrate wrestling-heavy opponents.
Loder's takedown accuracy sits at a dismal 14 percent, meaning Naurdiev's 73 percent takedown defense should be enough to keep this fight standing where he holds every advantage. When the fight stays on the feet, Naurdiev's dynamic movement, counter-striking, and kicks will punish Loder's slow entries and predictable wrestling shots.
Even if Loder secures an occasional takedown, Naurdiev has proven resilient against grapplers, using his scrambling ability and active guard to get back to his feet quickly. His recent win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308 demonstrated his ability to neutralize ground threats and impose his pace.
Loder is coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Azamat Bekoev, which raises questions about his chin and confidence heading into this matchup. Naurdiev's speed, versatility, and ability to dictate range should earn him a decision victory or potentially a late finish at UFC Qatar.
Final Ryan Loder-Ismail Naurdiev prediction & pick
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder features a clash of striking prowess and relentless wrestling at UFC Qatar. Naurdiev steps in with a wealth of high-level experience, bringing fast, technical kickboxing and the confidence of a recent knockout win, while Loder enters eager to impose his Division I wrestling and top control.
Early on, expect Loder to charge forward, looking for body locks and single-leg takedowns to leverage his ground-and-pound game. If he can get the Austrian to the mat early, Naurdiev’s path to victory becomes more complicated as rounds progress and fatigue sets in from defending heavy grappling.
However, Naurdiev’s ability to stay light on his feet and use sharp lateral movement are keys to disrupting Loder’s rhythm. With a deep striking repertoire, Naurdiev can punish failed entries, pick apart Loder at range, and gradually slow the wrestler with punishing calf kicks and body shots.
While Loder poses a real threat with his takedowns and physicality, the edge goes to Naurdiev for his versatility and finishing instincts. Ismail Naurdiev gets the win by decision or late TKO, outmaneuvering Loder on the feet and capitalizing on his striking advantage at UFC Qatar.
Final Ryan Loder-Saygid Izagakhmaev Prediction & Pick: Ismail Naurdiev (-135), Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)
