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These have been two of the worst teams in the Big 12 this season. They both need a win to try and finish the regular season with a respectable record. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Oklahoma State-UCF prediction and pick.
Oklahoma State is 14-15 this season, with its most significant win coming in a big upset against Iowa State. However, it has also suffered significant losses against Oklahoma, Houston, West Virginia, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech twice, Kansas, and Baylor. Bryce Thompson needs to have a repeat performance of their last matchup in this game against the Golden Knights in Orlando.
UCF is 15-14, and its most significant wins have come against Texas A&M and Texas Tech. It has also had notable losses in Wisconsin, LSU, Kansas twice, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State twice, and BYU. Keyshawn Hall is the best player on the Golden Knights and one of the best guards in the Big 12. They lost their last matchup to the Cowboys, but get a great chance in this game at home.
Here are the Oklahoma State-UCF College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Oklahoma State-UCF Odds
Oklahoma State: +4.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +178
UCF: -4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -205
Over: 164.5 (-110)
Under: 164.5 (-110)
How to Watch Oklahoma State vs. UCF
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN+
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Oklahoma State Will Cover The Spread/Win
UCF's defense is easily the worst in the Big 12. They allow 80.4 points per game, 45.6% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. In KenPom, the Golden Knights have an adjusted defensive rating of 132nd and a rating of 105.3.
For further proof that Hall does everything for the Golden Knights, he leads the team in rebounds, averaging seven per game. Moustapha Thiam has been a solid defender at the center position and leads the team in blocks, averaging 2.7 per game. Their on-ball defense has been unimpressive too. Three players average at least one steal, and Johnson is the best on-ball defender, leading the team with 2.2 per game.
The pieces on UCF should make for a good defense, but nothing has worked. This is a favorable matchup against the Cowboys, but they gave up over 100 points in their last matchup. This offense is why Oklahoma State has a chance.
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Why UCF Will Cover The Spread/Win
Oklahoma State's offense has had many issues this season, and consistency has been the main issue. They score 72.7 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 42.5%, and a three-point percentage of 31.6%. This is also the 143rd-ranked adjusted offense on KenPom, with a 108.6 rating.
Three Cowboys are averaging over double digits this season, and Thompson is the most consistent scorer on the roster, averaging 12.6 points per game. Thompson was also the best player in their previous matchup. The biggest issue with this offense is that they can't move the ball well. They only average 12.4 assists per game, and the leader in assists on the team is Arturo Dean, who only averages 3.1 per game.
This is a decent matchup against UCF because the Golden Knights have been awful on defense. The Cowboys should have success against a defense as bad as UCF's all season.
Oklahoma State's defense has also had a rough season, arguably worse than its offense. It allows 76.2 points per game, 46.2% from the field, and 35.4% from behind the arc. It also has the 81st-ranked defensive rating on KenPom, at 102.1.
The frontcourt has struggled to do much this season. Abou Ousmane leads the team in rebounding with 5.4 per game and blocks with one per game. However, they are slightly better when it comes to on-ball defense. Three players average at least one steal, and Arturo Dean is the best perimeter defender, averaging 2.3 steals per game.
This defense is in for a long game against a great UCF offense in this matchup. The Golden Knights can rely on their offense, and they should score easily in Orlando in this rematch against the Cowboys.
UCF's offense has been a top-five unit in a loaded Big 12. They score 78.9 points per game, have a 42.1% field-goal percentage and a 32.9% three-point shooting percentage. In KenPom, the Golden Knights have a top-60 offense. They have an adjusted offensive rating of 115.5, 56th in KenPom.
Four different Golden Knights are averaging over double digits in scoring and two are averaging at least 15 points per game. Hall is the best scorer on the team, averaging 18.9 points per game. Darius Johnson is next up, averaging 15.4 points per game. Johnson is also the team's assist leader, averaging 4.2 per game. The team also averages 14.1 assists as a team.
The Golden Knights can easily outscore the Cowboys. UCF's defense can hold them back, but the Golden Knights have the best unit in this entire game with their offense and should score at will.
Final Oklahoma State-UCF Prediction & Pick
Oklahoma State won the previous matchup in Stillwater, but it was close. UCF should return the favor in Orlando. Hall is the best player in this game. UCF should win, cover this game against Oklahoma State, and get revenge for their last matchup.
Final Oklahoma State-UCF Prediction & Pick: UCF -4.5 (-120)
