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It is a Sun Belt showdown as Old Dominion visits Marshall. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Old Dominion-Marshall prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Old Dominion enters the season at 2-2 overall. They opened the season with a loss to in-state foe Virginia Tech. The next week they would rebound. It was the opener to the conference schedule for ODU as they beat Louisiana in a high-scoring 38-31 affair. They nearly pulled an upset the next week as well. Old Dominion led 17-0 over Wake Forest at halftime and then 24-7 in the third quarter. Wake would score 20 straight points though and win 27-24. They were nearly the victim of upset the next week. Facing Texas A&M-Commerce, they were up 10-3 in the fourth. After a touchdown with 28 seconds left, Texas A&M-Commerce went for the win on a two-point conversion, but failed, to give Old Dominion the win.
Marshall enters the season at 3-0. After a close win over Albany, they took care of East Carolina with ease, winning 31-13. The next week, they would play Virginia Tech. After starting slow and being down in the second quarter, Marshall picked it up, taking a 17-10 lead into the half, and winning the game 24-17.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Old Dominion-Marshall Odds
Old Dominion: +14.5 (-112)
Marshall: -14.5 (-108)
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
How to Watch Old Dominion vs. Marshall Week 5
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Old Dominion Will Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
Grant Wilson has made all four starts for ODU at quarterback this year. He has not been good at all though. This year he is completing just 50.2 percent of his passes, and while he has seven touchdowns and 644 yards, he has also had multiple fumbles and thrown five interceptions. Further, he has thrown five more turn-over-worthy passes and has struggled when pressure comes. This year, he has been sacked 20 times, which is a 38.5 percent sack rate when facing pressure. That all led to him getting pulled last game and Jack Shields taking over. He was solid in his game, completing 14-20 passes for 258 yards and a score. Still, he took plenty of sacks as well, taking six of them in the game.
Regardless of who is in at quarterback, Old Dominion has to run the ball well. This year, Keshawn Wicks has run 42 times for 209 yards but has yet to find the endzone. Unline the pass blocking, the run blocking has been solid. He is getting a full two yards downfield before first contact this year. His backup, Devin Roche, has also been good. He has run for 148 yards this year, averaging over seven yards per carry. Still, Old Dominion has just one rushing touchdown this year, and that is from quarterback Grant Wilson. Meanwhile, they have fumbled five times.
On defense, Old Dominion is solid in stopping the run. They have 79 stops this year for offensive failures but have also missed 32 tackles. The best player against the run has been linebacker Jason Henderson. He has already made 22 tackles this year, with 17 stops for offensive failures, and his average depth of tackle is just 2.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Still, the pass defense needs some work. This year, Old Dominion has eight pass breakups and two interceptions. Still, they have allowed nine passing touchdowns, and nearly 65 percent of on-target passes to be completed.
Why Marshall Will Cover The Spread
Cam Fancher has been solid for Marshall at quarterback this year. On the season he has completed 59 of 89 passes for 612 yards and two touchdowns. He has also been protected very well this year. Francher has been pressured just 19 times this season and has been sacked just three. He has run for positive yardage ten times. The only knock on his game has been ball security. He has thrown three interceptions and another four turnover-worthy passes. Francher has also fumbled three times this year.
The Marshall running game features Rasheen Ali. Ali has run for 396 yards in just three games this year. He has also scored seven times on the ground and has seven runs over 15 yards this season. The offensive line has been making things easy for him as well. While he is averaging 6.3 yards per carry this year, only 2.7 of those are coming after his point of first contact.
Francher is also getting some reliable work from his receivers. That starts with the tight end Cade Conely. Conley has brought in 14 of 16 targets this year for 149 yards. He does have two drops though. Still, he is doing work after the catch, with 94 of his 149 yards this year. Meanwhile, he has targeted four other wide receivers ten or more times. Only one, Caleb McMillan does not have a higher completion rate than 60 percent. Between the four of them, they have three scores, just one drop, and average over seven yards after the catch per reception.
Marshall has also been getting a great pass rush this year. Sam Burton leads the way with 17 quarterback pressures and six sacks on the year. He has also hit the quarterback five other times. Eli Neal has five sacks this year on seven pressures as well. Overall, Marshall has 78 quarterback pressures and 22 sacks in three games this year. In coverage, they have been solid too. They have allowed just two passing touchdowns, while also coming away with two interceptions. Both of those come from Micah Abrhama, who has allowed just five of 13 on-target throws to be completed. Quarterbacks have a 71.9 NFL quarterback rating against the Marshall secondary this year.
Final Old Dominion-Marshall Prediction & Pick
This game will be won by turnovers and pressure. First, Marshall gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Old Dominion does not have the line to stop that pressure. Second, Marshall forces turnovers and long-yardage situations. Often, Old Dominion gives away the ball and is in long-yardage situations. Marshall is very strong in areas where Old Dominion is weak. The only question is will MArshall score enough to cover? With a bunch of short fields, that will happen.
Final Old Dominion-Marshall Prediction & Pick: Marshall -14.5 (-108)
