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Ole Miss and Alabama are set to square off in a huge SEC West showdown in Week 4 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. We continue our college football odds series with a Ole Miss-Alabama prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Crimson Tide, who played two quarterbacks in Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson, only mustered 17 points in a win at South Florida. Nick Saban will turn back to former starting quarterback Jalen Milroe against the Rebels to try to get the offense headed in the right direction.
As for Ole Miss, make it a 3-0 start for Lane Kiffin's team for the third straight season after a 48-23 win over Georgia Tech.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss-Alabama Odds
Ole Miss: +7 (-115)
Alabama: – 7 (-105)
Over: 55.5 (-105)
Under: 55.5 (-115)
How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Alabama
TV: CBS
Stream: CBSSports.com
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread
Ole Miss has arguably been the most impressive team in the SEC to this point. The Rebels rank in the top 10 in the nation in a plethora of offensive categories: 11.9 passing yards per attempt (3rd), 18.4 yards per completion (4th), 52.7 points per game (4th), 8.2 yards per play (8th), and 349.7 passing yards per game (9th). You'd expect a Kiffin-coached offense to put up numbers, but it's been the play of quarterback Jaxson Dart that has been the biggest story in Oxford.
Many thought that Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders would land the starting job. However, it has been Dart who has run with the opportunity…quite literally. While his passing numbers are impressive (852 YDs, 7 TDs, 66.2 CMP%), his rushing numbers (213 YDs, 2 TDs) have stood out. He had 14 carries for 136 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia Tech, which included a 68-yard run. Dart rushed for 614 yards a season ago, and he's well on his way to eclipsing that total this season.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers found plenty of success against the Tide in Week 2, and though Dart hasn't yet joined him in the Heisman conversation, he has the playmakers around him to post a huge game. That is, if he has his full arsenal. Tre Harris, who caught four touchdowns in the opener against Mercer, did not play against the Yellow Jackets. Still, Dart has options with Jordan Watkins (15 RECs, 290 YDs, 1 TD) and Dayton Wade (11 RECs, 215 YDs) both breaking plays of 40-plus yards this season.
The biggest asset in this offense is 2022 SEC rushing king Quinshon Judkins. He's the best running back in the conference and has scored a touchdown in every game thus far this season. In this same matchup a season ago, he had 23 carries for 135 yards and two touchdowns.
Yeah, the Ole Miss offense is going to score points, and Alabama's offense may struggle to keep up.
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread
Alabama's defense is going to have to make plays. It's as simple as that. Giving the offense a short field is crucial in this type of matchup, especially considering how that unit has played the past few weeks. They need all the easy points they can get. Ole Miss has only committed two turnovers this season (the Tide have forced four), but this is the best defense the Rebels have seen thus far. Alabama must take advantage of that with an aggressive approach that forces Dart to make plays and, in turn, not allow Judkins to get out in open space.
Another reason to pick Alabama in this spot is that, for the first time in a while, people are doubting Saban. There's no “rat poison” as he likes to call it. No one is hyping the Crimson Tide up as a College Football Playoff lock. Some even think this is the end of an era and that it could be the turning point for both programs — in a good way for Ole Miss and a bad way for Alabama.
Disregarding Saban's ability to get his team to the occasion? Do that at your own peril. He's one of the best coaches ever for a reason, and he'll have his guys ready to play.
Also, Alabama doesn't lack talent. The Tide have weapons on offense. It's up to offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to draw up the right play calls to put Milroe in a position to succeed, and then, he has to give his playmakers a chance to make plays. A breakout game from Roydell Williams (129 YDs and 1 TD vs. South Florida), Jase McClellan (84 YDs and 1 TD vs. Ole Miss in 2022), or Jermaine Burton (6 RECs, 127 YDs, 2 TDs) is possible in this spot.
They just need a little help from the defense to make it easier to score points.
Final Ole Miss-Alabama Prediction & Pick
Lane Kiffin is 0-4 against his former boss Nick Saban, which has led to everyone asking the same question: If not now, when? It may be premature to declare that the Alabama dynasty is over, but this Crimson Tide team seems to have more issues than we're used to seeing with a Saban-coached group. There's no clear answer at quarterback, and it has put a lot of pressure on the defense to win games. That may be easy to do against MTSU and South Florida, but it won't be against Dart, Judkins, and this Ole Miss offense. The Rebels could win this game outright, which makes them the pick as a touchdown underdog in this game.
Final Ole Miss-Alabama Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss +7 (-115)
