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The Baltimore Orioles take on the San Diego Padres. Our MLB odds series has our Orioles Padres prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Orioles Padres.
The San Diego Padres are running out of time. They're running out of games. They're running out of weeks in the 2023 MLB season in their desperate pursuit of a National League wild card berth.
Time is passing and the Padres are not improving. They're regressing, back to a 56-63 record through 119 games. They have just 43 games on their schedule, and they face a 6.5-game deficit in the push for the third National League wild card spot. The Philadelphia Phillies are in the first wild card position. The San Francisco Giants are in the second wild card position. The Miami Marlins — at 63-57 through 120 games — are in the final wild card position. That's the target for the Padres, who also have to climb past the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds (both four games over .500) if they want to play in October.
The Padres shelled out big money for Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis. They're drawing huge crowds in San Diego throughout the season. Everyone keeps waiting for this elite talent to crush baseballs and dominate a National League in which only two teams are conspicuously strong: the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers. If the Padres lose to those clubs, it's not an embarrassment, but losing two of three to the cratering Arizona Diamondbacks over the past weekend is precisely the head-scratching plot twist which has recurred for the better part of four and a half months. The Padres now have to win a few games against the Baltimore Orioles — the team with the best record in the American League — if they want to avoid falling further behind in the standings. It's a rough scene in San Diego.
Here are the Orioles-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Padres Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-188)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+155)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How To Watch Orioles vs. Padres
TV: MASN (Orioles) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT
*Watch Orioles-Padres LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Padres' struggles are evident, but the main reason to pick the Orioles is that the O's are really, really good. They keep answering questions. They keep winning tough games against good teams. Look at the six games they played against the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners over the past week. Those two teams made the playoffs last year. The Astros won the World Series. Baltimore played the Astros and M's on even terms in six games, finishing 3-3. Baltimore lost one of those three games because elite closer Felix Bautista gave up a very rare home run against the Astros and Kyle Tucker. The O's easily could have been 4-2 in those six games.
Here's an amazing fact about the Orioles: They have not been swept in 78 consecutive series, placing them among some of the greatest MLB teams of all time. This is a tough team which just keeps showing up to work and grinding out hard-earned wins. It's exactly the opposite of the Padres, a team Juan Soto feels has not shown nearly as much resilience as it should.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres will cover the spread primarily because they're going against Jack Flaherty, the Baltimore starter who came over from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline. They're not facing the very best of the Orioles' rotation. The other reason to pick San Diego is that if you have watched the Padres this year, you know that on the day after a game in which the Padre offense sputters, San Diego usually scores a lot more runs. Go through the scores of Padre home games in 2023. You will see that in home games after the team scores just one run at home, the Padres often score five or more runs. If they score five here, they should win.
Final Orioles-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Padres have been one of the two or three worst teams to bet for (not against) this season, given the run line and money line prices they have commanded despite having a bad overall record. Padre bettors have lost money this season. For that reason, you should stay away from this game, which seems like a good spot for San Diego but could be a trap.
Final Orioles-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
