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The MLB season continues as the Baltimore Orioles look to pick up the win on the road in Minnesota when they take on the Twins in game one of their series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a White Sox-Twins prediction and pick.
Orioles-Twins Projected Starters
Cade Povich vs Pablo Lopez
Cade Povich – (1-2) with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP
Last Start: Povich didn't factor into Wednesday's decision against the Yankees, allowing three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out two over 4.2 innings.
2025 Road Splits: Povich has pitched a lot better on the road than at home in his limited action, where he is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 12.2 innings.
Pablo Lopez – (2-2) with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP
Last Start: Lopez took the loss against the Guardians on Wednesday, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings. He did not issue a walk.
2025 Home Splits: Lopez pitched well in his only start at home, where he is 1-0 and gave up two runs on five hits while striking out six across 5 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Twins Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +136
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How To Watch Orioles vs. Twins
Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40 PM PT
TV: Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cade Povich and the Baltimore Orioles are primed to upend Pablo López and the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday thanks to a combination of recent momentum and matchup advantages. Povich, a former Twins draft pick, has shown flashes of brilliance this season, most notably outdueling MacKenzie Gore with a 6 2/3-inning, one-run gem against the Nationals, his best start yet, according to manager Brandon Hyde. The lefty’s evolving pitch mix, especially a more effective sweeper and improved changeup, has helped him bounce back from early struggles and position himself as a difference-maker in the Orioles’ injury-riddled rotation. With Baltimore’s offense averaging over seven runs per game against Minnesota in recent head-to-head matchups, Povich will have the run support he needs to compete with López.
While Pablo López boasts an impressive 2.25 ERA this season and a strong track record against the Orioles, he has shown some vulnerability at home (3.60 ERA at Target Field in 2025) and has been less dominant against left-handed hitters, who are batting .286 off him this year. Baltimore’s lineup, which has out-hit and outscored the Twins in their recent meetings, is well-positioned to capitalize on any mistakes. If Povich can command the strike zone early and keep the Twins’ bats quiet, the Orioles’ recent offensive surge and Povich’s upward trajectory give them a clear path to victory over López and Minnesota on Tuesday.
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pablo López and the Minnesota Twins have the edge heading into Tuesday’s matchup against Cade Povich and the Baltimore Orioles, and it starts on the mound. López has been the model of consistency this season, sporting a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a strong 26:4 K:BB ratio over 28 innings. In his last outing, he retired 14 straight batters and allowed just two runs over 6.1 innings, demonstrating his ability to dominate lineups deep into games. At home, López has been particularly effective, and his track record against left-handed-heavy lineups like Baltimore’s bodes well for Minnesota’s chances.
Meanwhile, Cade Povich enters with a 5.16 ERA and a troubling 1.65 WHIP, having allowed six home runs and 37 hits over his last four starts-one of the highest hit totals in the American League. The Orioles’ offense has also cooled off, averaging just 2.5 runs per game over their last 10 contests. With Minnesota’s recent momentum and López’s ability to work efficiently and limit damage, the Twins are well-positioned to take advantage of Povich’s struggles and Baltimore’s slumping bats. Expect López to set the tone and the Twins’ lineup to capitalize, giving Minnesota the upper hand in this key series opener.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick
On Tuesday, Pablo López and the Twins are poised to outpitch Cade Povich and the Orioles. López’s dominant control and ability to suppress runs, especially at home, will keep Baltimore’s offense in check. Meanwhile, Povich’s recent struggles and high hit allowance make it tough for the Orioles to generate consistent offense. Minnesota’s lineup, fueled by solid recent performances, should capitalize on any mistakes. Expect López to deliver a strong outing, limiting Baltimore’s scoring opportunities, while the Twins’ bats produce enough runs to secure a confident victory. This game favors the Twins in both pitching and offensive execution.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Twins ML (-162), Over 8.5 (+100)
