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The San Diego Padres will start a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves on Friday at Truist Park. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Padres-Braves prediction, and pick while showing you how to watch.
The Padres endured a three-game sweep at Petco Park by the Colorado Rockies. Somehow, they managed just seven runs across three games. San Diego is just 1-4 over the past five games, which destroyed all the momentum they gained from a 6-2 start over the first eight games of May. Now, they hope to bounce back in their series against the Rockies.
The Braves recently won two of three against the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, they could not complete the sweep as they faltered in the finale. But the Braves are 6-2 over the past eight games. Furthermore, they are 7-5 this month.
The Padres won the season series 4-3 in 2023. Moreover, they went 3-1 over four games against the Braves at Truist Park. The Padres hope to replicate that success again. Subsequently, they will need good pitching to do it.
Matt Waldron starts for the Padres. He is 1-5 with a 5.49 ERA. Recently, he went 5 1/3 innings while allowing two earned runs on two hits while striking out six in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Waldron has lost four consecutive starts.
Max Freid starts for the Braves. He is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA. Amazingly, he tossed seven no-hit innings while striking out five and walking three in his last start, a win over the New York Mets. Fried has had a quality start in four of his past five outings. Additionally, he is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA over four games against the Padres in his career.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Braves Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-114)
Moneyline: +180
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -215
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How to Watch Padres vs. Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20 M PT
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have seen a massive improvement in their offense. Significantly, they are seventh in batting average. The Padres are also eighth in on-base percentage, sixth in runs, ninth in home runs, and 10th in slugging percentage. Now, they hope their top hitters can bounce back from a bad series.
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Fernando Tatis is batting .256 with eight home runs, 22 RBIs, and 29 runs. Also, he is 2 for 4 with a double in his career against Fried. Jurickson Profar is having a solid campaign, batting .322 with seven home runs, 29 RBIs, and 24 runs. Moreover, he is 1 for 5 with a double and a walk against Fried.
Manny Machado is looking for more, as he is hitting .222 with five home runs, 22 RBIs, and 20 runs this season. Unfortunately, he has struggled against Fried, going 1 for 14 with a solo home run against the pitcher. Xander Bogaerts is batting .213 with four home runs, 13 RBIs, and 23 runs this season. Likewise, he is 1 for 5 against Fried.
The Padres are inconsistent on the mound. Ultimately, they rank 19th in team ERA. The Padres also have a bullpen that does not consistently produce results, ranking 16th in team ERA.
The Padres will cover the spread if they can force Fried into tough and long innings. Then, they need Waldron to avoid making critical mistakes down the heart of the plate.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves continue to bash the baseball. Currently, they are fifth in batting average and on-base percentage. The Braves are also 13th in runs, 15th in home runs, and sixth in slugging percentage. Overall, they have a dangerous lineup with numerous stars.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is batting .245 with three home runs, 11 RBIs, and 33 runs. After getting his first day off of the season on Wednesday, he hopes to have a good series against the Padres, a team he is hitting .236 with two home runs, five RBIs, and nine runs over 14 games in his history. Ozzie Albies Jr. is batting .280 with three home runs, 19 RBIs, and 21 runs. Also, he is clipping .201 with five home runs and 15 RBIs over 34 career games against the Padres.
Marcell Ozuna is hitting .327 with 12 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 24 runs. Furthermore, he is hitting just .246 with 12 home runs and 28 RBIs over 50 games against the Padres. Matt Olson is clipping .219 with five home runs, 22 RBIs, and 17 runs. Yet, he has done well against the Padres, batting .310 with four home runs and 18 RBIs over 25 games.
The Braves are solid on the mound. Substantially, they are eighth in team ERA. The Braves are also solid in the bullpen, ranking ninth in team ERA.
The Braves will cover the spread if their lineup batters Waldron. Then, they need another great game from Fried.
Final Padres-Braves Prediction & Pick
The Padres have been maddeningly inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Braves have once again been elite. Fried is also one of the best pitchers in baseball and has not allowed a hit in two of his past three starts. Overall, he will be the defining beacon who shuts the Padres down in front of the faithful at Truist Park. Expect the Braves to also give him run support by hitting the ball off Waldron. Consequently, this feels like an 8-2 win waiting. Braves cover the spread.
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Final Padres-Braves Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)
