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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Rays prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Padres Rays.
The San Diego Padres are different this year. Last year, they simply never could get on a three- or four-week roll. This year, all that has changed. They have multiple people to thank for this. Jurickson Profar, motivated by a dismissive comment from Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has produced a huge season for the Padres. Manny Machado is hitting some timely bombs. Dylan Cease found elite form midway through the season. The bullpen is lights-out and got better at the trade deadline with the addition of Tanner Scott from the Miami Marlins. There are many reasons for San Diego being better, but the number one reason is that Jackson Merrill is now very much in line to become the National League Rookie of the Year in Major League Baseball. Merrill is not just a great clutch hitter at 21 years of age; he might be the best clutch hitter in the game in this 2024 season. He has hit five tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth or ninth inning this season. No one else has as many. Merrill has also made game-saving catches in center field and has hammered non-home-run base hits to score big late-inning runs on numerous other occasions. Merrill is the added piece of the puzzle which has the Padres 16 games over .500 and in great position to make the playoffs. San Diego isn't a lock to get in, but just the same, the Friars would have to collapse in September to lose a playoff position. They just need to be .500 over the next month, and that should be enough to get in.
Padres-Rays Projected Starters
Martin Perez vs. Taj Bradley
Martin Perez (3-5) has a 4.60 ERA. The Padres will need Perez to give them more length. He didn't escape the fourth inning of his most recent start. San Diego can't overextend its bullpen right now. Saving arms for October is a central goal.
Last Start: Sunday, August 25 versus the New York Mets: 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
2024 Road Splits: 8 starts, 43 1/3 IP, 53 H, 29 R, 10 HR, 17 BB, 32 K
Taj Bradley (6-8) has a 3.77 ERA. The young pitcher has been solid for the Rays this season, in a year when so many of Tampa Bay's quality pitchers have been injured and unavailable. Pitching to an ERA under 3.8 is a mark of a solid pro pitcher. Bradley has done his part to keep the Rays competitive.
Last Start: Saturday, August 24 versus the Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 57 1/3 IP, 39 H, 20 R, 8 HR, 19 BB, 30 K
Here are the Padres-Rays MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Rays Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +112
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+164)
Moneyline: -132
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Padres vs Rays
Time: 6:50 p.m. ET/3:50 p.m. PT
TV: Apple TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres just lost two games in a row. That hasn't happened often since the All-Star break. Expect this team to get back on the beam. These are not the same old Padres from 2023. This team has shown a backbone and a level of resilience far greater than what we saw last year. Manager Mike Shildt has gotten more out of this team than Bob Melvin did a year ago, and that has made a real difference for San Diego. It will make a difference here.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Taj Bradley is a better pitcher than Martin Perez. He has also been really good at home here if you look at the splits. His home ERA is lower than his road ERA this season, and that is probably why the Rays are priced as a moneyline favorite even though they're a game under .500 and are 8.5 games below the Padres in the MLB standings entering this game.
Final Padres-Rays Prediction & Pick
This game is priced as something close to a toss-up, so we're not going to pick a side here. The total is a much better play with the number at 7.5 for a game not involving two ace-level starting pitchers. The over looks like a great play.
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Final Padres-Rays Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5
