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The Washington Capitals host the defending Eastern Conference Champion Florida Panthers on Wednesday Night Hockey. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Panthers-Capitals prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Panthers are getting hot after a bit of a Stanley Cup final hangover coming into the season. Their 6-4-1 record isn't terrible, considering that Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, and Sam Bennett are injured. The Hockey News reported that Ekblad and Montour may return by the end of November, ahead of schedule. They are 3-0-1 over Bobrovsky's past four starts and 5-1-1 overall. He has a save percentage of .914.
The Capitals offensive attack has taken a hit this season. Most notably, Alexander Ovechkin thought he would be inching closer to Wayne Gretzky's goal record. However, he only has two goals in the first ten games. Ovechkin is known to score in bunches, so there isn't cause for concern yet, as you may look back at the end of November, and he has double-digit goals. They struggled to begin the season but have won four of their last five games. It is the last of a five-game home stand, as they take off to the tri-state area to face the New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders this weekend. Their defense has been impressive during the run, allowing only 11 goals during the five-game span.
Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Panthers-Capitals Odds
Florida Panthers: -1.5 (+162) ML (-142)
Washington Capitals: +1.5 (-196) ML (+118)
Over: 6.5 (-106)
Under: 6.5 (-114)
How to Watch Panthers vs. Capitals
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: TNT
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Panthers Will Cover The Spread/Win
Other than the New Jersey Devils, the Capitals' wins this season have come against teams below them in the standings. Their offensive struggles come to light when facing the better teams in the league. The Panthers have been rounding into form and are starting to look like the team that went on the Stanley Cup final run last season. They have one of the best top-six forward groups in the league, and their acquisition of Evan Rodrigues has looked good next to Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart.
Sergei Bobrovsky will be getting the start tonight, boasting a 5-3-1 record with a 2.68 goals-against average and a .905 save percentage. The Capitals are averaging only 1.9 goals per game, with their top lines needing to perform better. Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, and Tom Wilson are combining for 11 goals, but the rest of the offense has come up short. When comparing the firepower of the top two lines, it isn't easy to see how Washington beats Florida. Their defense has also had problems, allowing three goals per game. After the top pairing of John Carlson and Rasmus Sandin, not much has gone right for the Capitals defensive unit. They have been better over their last four games, but they faced below-average offenses like San Jose, New York Islanders, and Columbus. They all sit in the bottom ten of goals per game.
Florida has had Washington's number in their recent matchups. Over the last ten games, the Panthers are 8-2-0. They won all three games against Washington last season and six straight.
Why The Capitals Will Cover The Spread/Win
There aren't many reasons to lean heavily on the side of the Washington Capitals. The Capitals have been fundamentally sound under new head coach Spencer Carbery. It may be why their offense is struggling, but it's hard to ignore their defensive success over the past five games. Washington's best win this season came against the New Jersey Devils when they went outside their structure and outscored them 6-4. Despite the win, that isn't how Carbery wants his team to play. If the Capitals get into a north-south battle with the Panthers tonight, they may have a chance to win. However, a battle with a lot of defensive structure may result in a low-scoring loss for the Capitals.
Final Panthers-Capitals Prediction & Pick
It's hard to pick a side for this game, as both teams come in on identical trajectories. They started the year looking like two of the worst teams in the league but are now on a run to get themselves back into playoff contention. The Capitals rank 31st in the NHL with 1.9 goals per game, and the Panthers aren't much better, ranking 22nd with 2.82 goals per game. In an uncharacteristic issue for the Capitals in the Alex Ovechkin era, their powerplay clicks at a 9.7% rate. Florida's powerplay has had issues ever since last season when people were questioning how they were succeeding in the playoffs without the presence of a powerplay. Their powerplay success rate this season is 13.5%. This number should be closer to 5.5, so a good bet is to take the under 6.5.
The Capitals' top two lines are barely producing, and the depth down the lineup isn't going to scare Sergei Bobrovsky or the Panthers' defense. Florida is led by their top six, notably Sam Reinhart and his 13 points, but hasn't had many producers in their bottom six. The Panthers only allowed 15 goals in the last six games, while the Capitals allowed 11 in their past five games. Maybe the two offenses are due for a breakout night, but it doesn't feel like it's coming tonight.
The Capitals have won most of their games against the league's bottom-feeders, with their only notable win coming in a high-scoring affair with the New Jersey Devils. The Panthers enter this game on as much of a hot streak as the Capitals. The Panthers have won eight of the last ten games against the Capitals and six straight.
Final Panthers-Capitals Prediction & Pick: Under 6.5 (-114); Panthers ML (-142)
