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UFC Vegas 105: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the main card with a fight between Joanderson Brito and Pat Sabatini in the featherweight division. Brito is coming off a razor-close split decision defeat his last time out, meanwhile, Sabatini looked the most dominant he's looked in his UFC career as he came away with the first-round submission in his last fight. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Sabatini-Brito prediction and pick.
Pat Sabatini (19-5) got back on track in a big way with a dominant first-round submission victory over Jonathan Pearce after suffering the worst of his career against the now title challenger Diego Lopes. Now, Sabatini will be looking to continue his momentum and extend his winning streak to two in a row when he takes on Joanderson Brito this weekend at the UFC Apex.
Joanderson Brito (17-4-1) is coming off only his second defeat in his UFC career when he lost a close split decision to William Gomis, where he just had trouble with the footwork and didn't get the nod on the judge's scorecards. Now, Brito gets to take on decorated grappler Pat Sabatini in hopes of getting back on track this weekend at UFC Vegas 105.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Pat Sabatini-Joanderson Brito Odds
Pat Sabatini: +190
Joanderson Brito: -230
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Pat Sabatini Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jonathan Pearce – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 (1 KO/TKO/13 SUB)
Pat Sabatini has a strong case to defeat Joanderson Brito this weekend at UFC Vegas 105, relying on his elite grappling and submission skills to control the fight. Sabatini, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, averages an impressive 3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes with a submission rate of 2.0 per fight, making him one of the most dangerous grapplers in the featherweight division. His ability to chain takedowns and maintain top control was evident in his dominant submission wins over Jonathan Pearce and Lucas Almeida. Against Brito, who has shown occasional lapses in defensive grappling, Sabatini’s ground game could be the deciding factor.
While Brito is a powerful striker with finishing ability, his aggressive style may leave openings for Sabatini to secure takedowns and dictate the pace. Sabatini’s striking defense (48%) and ability to absorb minimal damage (1.47 strikes absorbed per minute) further enhance his chances of neutralizing Brito’s offense. If Sabatini can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and drag Brito into grappling-heavy scenarios, he is likely to control the fight and capitalize on submission opportunities. Expect Sabatini to use his superior ground game to earn a hard-fought unanimous decision or a late submission victory in this highly competitive featherweight clash.
Why Joanderson Brito Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) William Gomis – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 15 (7 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Joanderson Brito has a clear path to victory against Pat Sabatini at UFC Vegas 105, thanks to his explosive striking and well-rounded skill set. Brito, fighting out of Chute Boxe, has established himself as a dangerous finisher with eight knockouts and seven submissions in his career. His ability to start fast and overwhelm opponents was evident in his first-round finishes against Andre Fili and Westin Wilson. Brito’s powerful calf kicks, sharp boxing combinations, and relentless aggression make him a threat in the stand-up exchanges, especially against Sabatini, who has shown vulnerabilities when pressured early.
While Sabatini is an elite grappler with 12 submission victories, Brito’s strong takedown defense (67%) and ability to scramble effectively give him an edge in neutralizing Sabatini’s wrestling-heavy approach. Brito also has the cardio to maintain his pace across three rounds, as demonstrated in his split-decision win over William Gomis. If Brito can keep the fight standing and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges, he is likely to land heavy shots that could lead to a finish. Expect Brito to capitalize on Sabatini’s defensive lapses and secure a second-round TKO victory, solidifying his position as one of the most dangerous featherweights in the division.
Final Pat Sabatini-Joanderson Brito Prediction & Pick
This featherweight matchup between Pat Sabatini and Joanderson Brito at UFC Vegas 105 promises to be a clash of grappling and striking styles. Sabatini’s elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and relentless wrestling will likely be the deciding factors. His ability to control opponents on the ground and chain submissions makes him a constant threat. Brito, though dangerous with his explosive striking and KO power, has shown vulnerabilities when pressured by high-level grapplers. Sabatini will neutralize Brito’s striking by securing takedowns early, grinding him down with top control and submission attempts. Expect Sabatini to earn a unanimous decision victory after three dominant rounds.
Final Pat Sabatini-Joanderson Brito Prediction & Pick: Pat Sabatini (+190), Over 1.5 Rounds (-154)
