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The MLB season continues as the Philadelphia Phillies look to continue their hot start to the season when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of their series on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Phillies-Cardinals Projected Starters
Aaron Nola vs. Andre Pallante
Aaron Nola – (0-2) with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP
Last Start: Nola took the loss against the Dodgers on Saturday, allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk with two strikeouts over six innings.
2025 Road Splits: Nola suffered a loss in his first game on the road against the Nationals where he gave up six hits, five earned runs, while striking out eight over five innings.
Andre Pallante – (1-0) with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP
Last Start: Pallante did not factor in the decision during a loss to Boston, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings while striking out six.
2025 Home Splits: Pallante got his first win of the season at home against the Twins, where he gave up four hits, two earned runs while striking out three over five innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Cardinals Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: -142
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: +120
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Cardinals
Article Continues Below
Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
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Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Philadelphia Phillies are well-positioned to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, thanks to their ace Aaron Nola and a potent lineup. Nola, a proven workhorse, has consistently delivered for the Phillies, logging over 30 starts in four consecutive seasons and maintaining a career ERA of 3.72. While his strikeout rate has dipped slightly in recent years, Nola’s ability to induce weak contact and limit walks remains elite. Nola’s command and experience give the Phillies a significant edge on the mound. Additionally, the Phillies’ offense, led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, has shown it can generate runs in bunches, with Schwarber already homering three times this season.
On the other side, Andre Pallante will take the mound for the Cardinals. While Pallante has shown promise as a starter, his inability to consistently miss bats (career strikeout rate of just 18.5%) could be problematic against a Phillies lineup that thrives on making hard contact. The Cardinals’ offense has also been inconsistent, with key hitters like Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar off to slow starts. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been strong in situational hitting, an area where St. Louis has struggled historically. If Nola can set the tone early and the Phillies’ bats capitalize on Pallante’s contact-heavy approach, Philadelphia is well-positioned to secure an important road win and continue their push in the NL East standings.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The St. Louis Cardinals are well-positioned to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, thanks to Andre Pallante’s unique pitching arsenal and their red-hot offense. Pallante has emerged as a reliable rotation piece for the Cardinals, leveraging his improved “death ball” curveball and sinker combination to dominate left-handed hitters. In 2024, Pallante posted a 38.9% swing-and-miss rate against lefties with his curveball, while his sinker effectively limited damage against right-handed batters. This versatility allows him to keep opposing lineups off balance, and he’ll be facing a Phillies team that has struggled with strikeouts early in the season, with 68 strikeouts in nine games. If Pallante can deploy his refined repertoire effectively, he could neutralize key hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Offensively, the Cardinals have been firing on all cylinders, averaging 7.3 runs per game through their first seven contests. Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar have led the charge with consistent production, while Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn have bolstered the team’s defense and baserunning. The Phillies’ Aaron Nola has struggled early in 2025, posting a 6.35 ERA and allowing a .581 ISO on pitches down the middle. With the Cardinals’ lineup capitalizing on mistakes and Pallante’s ability to induce ground balls at an elite clip, St. Louis is well-equipped to exploit Philadelphia’s vulnerabilities. If their offense continues its torrid pace and Pallante delivers another solid outing, the Cardinals are poised to secure a key victory at home.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The St. Louis Cardinals are poised to take down the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, backed by Andre Pallante’s ability to induce weak contact and a surging offense. Pallante’s sinker and curveball combination could stifle the Phillies’ power hitters, while St. Louis’ lineup, led by Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar, has been averaging over seven runs per game. Aaron Nola’s early-season struggles (6.35 ERA) leave Philadelphia vulnerable, especially against a Cardinals team capitalizing on mistakes. Expect St. Louis to secure a hard-fought victory at home.
Final Phillies-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (+120), Over 7.5 (-115)
