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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Guardians prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Phillies-Guardians.
The Philadelphia Phillies have reason to be optimistic about their season. They watched with delight on Saturday as Ranger Suarez, who made his 2025 debut one week ago and was understandably rusty, rounded into form and dominated the Cleveland Guardians. Suarez looked like his best self on the mound, throwing seven dominant shutout innings and giving up only three hits in a 7-1 Philadelphia win. The Phillies have an abundance of quality starting pitching. They have the best five-man starting rotation in baseball. It is the number one reason they can make and win the World Series in a high-pressure season for the franchise.
The Cleveland Guardians have been very good so far this season, but they have been good in one specific way: They win one-run games. Over one-third of Cleveland's 23 wins have been by one run. The Guardians have overcome closer Emmanuel Clase's early struggles to make big plays late in games. The Guardians are seven over .500 but can actually play much better than what we have seen. That's the exciting part about the Guardians and where they stand through the first 39 games of the season. It's a matchup of two 23-16 teams on Sunday Night Baseball.
Phillies-Guardians Projected Starters
Zack Wheeler vs Luis Ortiz
Zack Wheeler (3-1) has a 3.35 ERA. He has been decent this season, but “decent” is not the expected standard for a Cy Young Award contender who is one of the most imposing and talented starting pitchers in baseball. Wheeler has pitched like a good No. 3 starter, not like an ace. Wheeler pitching like an ace as we head toward Memorial Day and the summer is what the Phillies will need to overtake the New York Mets in the National League East.
Last Start: May 6 at Tampa Bay Rays — 4 1/3 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 0 HR, 4 BB, 8 K
Away Splits: 5 starts, 30 1/3 IP, 26 H, 14 R, 5 HR, 8 BB, 36 K
Luis Ortiz (2-3) has a 5.30 ERA. The numbers look really bad, but they are not as awful as they might seem on the surface. The explanation is not that complicated. While Ortiz does have a fat ERA due to some really bad starts, he has bundled his run allowance into those awful starts, but in his other outings, he has been solid. This is not a situation in which a pitcher is getting tagged and is coughing up large numbers of runs most of the time he takes the mound. Ortiz is awful when he is not on top of his game, but he pitches reasonably well more often than not. Cleveland would not be 23-16 if Ortiz was bad most of the time he pitches. He simply has some really bad days which cause his ERA to be bloated. Last week against the Nats is a case in point.
Last Start: May 6 at Washington Nationals — 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Home Splits: 3 starts, 16 1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 1 HR, 9 BB, 23 K
Here are the Phillies-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Guardians Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: -176
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +148
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Article Continues Below
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Phillies vs Guardians
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET/4:05 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
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Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies have elite starters. Zack Wheeler should give them a great chance to win and cover every time he takes the hill. Ranger Suarez handled Cleveland on Saturday. Wheeler can take the wheel and deliver another shutdown performance on Sunday.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians are a good team. They got roughed up on Saturday but are in a good bounce-back spot here. Zack Wheeler has not been at his best this season. Cleveland can scratch together some runs and win a 4-3 type of game.
Final Phillies-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Phillies are the better team with the better offense and better starting pitcher. Take Philly.
Final Phillies-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5
