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The New York Mets look to close out their NLDS series as they face the Philadelphia Phillies. It's time to continue our NLDS odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies-Mets Game 4 Projected Starters
Ranger Suarez vs. Jose Quintana
Ranger Suarez (12-8) with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
Last Start: Suarez went just two innings, giving up seven hits, two walks, and a home run. He would give up six runs in a loss to the Nationals.
2024 Away Splits: Suarez was 7-6 in 15 starts on the road this year. He has a 3.40 ERA and a .230 opponent batting average.
Jose Quintana (10-10) with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP
Last Start: Quintana went six innings in his playoff start against the Brewers. He gave up four hits and a walk without a run taking the no-decision as the Mets beat the Brewers.
2024 Home Splits: Quintana went 5-5 at home in 15 starts. He has a 3.64 ERA and a .232 opponent batting average.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -118
New York Mets: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets Game 4
Time: 5:08 PM ET/ 2:08 PM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies were fifth in the majors in runs scored this year, while sitting fifth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging. Kyle Schwarber led the way. He hit .248 this year with a .366 on-base percentage. Schwarber has 38 home runs 104 RBIs, and 110 runs scored. Alec Bohm also had a great year. He hit .280 on the year with a .332 on-base percentage. Bohm has 15 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 62 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats this year was Bryce Harper. He hit .285 on the year with a .373 on-base percentage. Harper has 30 home runs, 87 RBIS, and 85 runs scored.
In the first two games of the series, Bryce Harper has led the way. He is 3-9 in the series with four walks, a home run, and three RBIs. Meanwhile, Bryson Stott has also been solid. He is 2-8 in the series with two RBIs and a run score. Rounding out the best bats has been Nick Castellanos. He is five for 13 in the series with a home run and three RBIs. The Phillies have hit just .204 in the series with three home runs and 11 runs scored over three games.
Current Phillies have 191 career at-bats against Jose Quintana. They have hit .241 with 20 RBIs and six home runs against Quintana. Nick Castellanos has the most experience. He is 13-53 with two home runs and seven RBIs. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is 7-24 with a home run and four RBIs. Finally, Trea Turner is 6-24 with an RBI.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets finished their regular season seventh in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 12th in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Francisco Lindor led the way. He hit .273 on the year with a .344 on-base percentage. He had 33 home runs, 91 RBIS, and 107 runs scored. Further, Lindor stole 29 bases this year. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo also had a nice year. He hit .224 with a .327 on-base percentage. Nimmo has 23 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 88 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats from the year was Pete Alnoso. He hit .240 on the year with 34 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 91 runs scored.
Mark Vientos has led the way in the playoffs. He is hitting .417 in the playoffs with two home runs and seven RBIs. He has also scored five times. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso is not hitting well but is driving in runs. He is hitting just .158 but has a .526 on-base percentage. Alsono has three home runs, seven RBIs, and five runs scored in the playoffs. Brandon Nimmo rounds out the top bats. Nimmo is hitting .304 in the playoffs with a home run, four RBIs, and six runs scored. The Mets are hitting .239 in the playoffs with seven home runs and 34 runs scored in six games.
Current Mets have 143 career at-bats against Ranger Suarez. They have hit .238 against Suarez. Brandon Nimmo has the most experience but is just 3-25 with an RBI and three walks. Still, Starling Marte is 6-19 with an RBI while Francisco Lindo is 5-16 with a home run and an RBI. Overall, the current Mets have four home runs and 11 RBIs against Suarez.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Ranger Suarez has struggled over the last month. In September Suarez made five starts, giving up 15 runs in 22.1 innings of work. He had a 6.04 ERA and the Phillies went 2-3 in those five games. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana has been fantastic. In his last five starts, including his playoff start, he has given up just two runs in his last 31 innings of work. That is good for a 0.58 ERA, as the Mets went 4-1 in those five games. The Phillies were favorites to advance from the NLDS against the Mets, but the Mets have had the upper hand and will have that again in this one. Take the Mets to close out the series.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (+100)
