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The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-39) visit the Miami Marlins (42-33) for the first of a four-game series. First pitch commences Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Marlins prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Pirates-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Marlins Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-178)
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Marlins
TV: ATTSN Pittsburgh, Bally Sports
Stream: ESPN+, MLB.tv
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET/ 3:30 p.m. PT
*Find out how to watch Pirates-Marlins LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
On June 11th the Pirates sat at 34-30 and in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. 10 days later and the Pirates sit at 34-39 and in fourth place in the division. Thus is life in one of the worst divisions of baseball. After being swept by the Cubs twice and the Brewers, the Pirates arrive in Miami looking to snap a nine-game skid. While they aren't totally out of it yet, Pittsburgh would be wise to turn things around quickly. They started 19-9 in April but have since gone 14-30. That said, their offense has looked much better against lefties (.757 OPS) compared to righties (.692 OPS) – perhaps providing a path to cover as road underdogs.
Righty Mitch Keller (8-3) makes his 16th start of the season for the Pirates tonight. With a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, Keller is well on his way to a career season in 2023. Perhaps most impressive has been his strikeout and walk numbers. Both his 28.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate rank in the top 30% league-wide and mark career highs. Keller has also done a fantastic job limiting hard contact – ranking in the 84th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. After a blistering start to the season, Keller has regressed somewhat – allowing 4+ runs in four of his last five outings. Still, he collected at least seven strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts and should be in for another strong night against Miami's 25th-ranked offense.
While the team hasn't managed much offense this month, that's no fault of third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. The 26-year-old is batting .379 this month while maintaining a .924 OPS. Although his counting stats aren't eye-popping, 36 total bases in 17 games are nothing to scoff at. The X-factor for the Pirates tonight could be Rodolfo Castro. The 24-year-old shortstop has obliterated left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .342 average and a team-leading six home runs and 49 total bases.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Despite dropping two of three to the Blue Jays at home this week, the Marlins still sit three games up in the wildcard. Miami has been one of the most surprising stories in baseball this season considering they're nine games over .500 despite a rough year from Sandy Alcantara and a prolonged IL stint from Jazz Chisholm. Miami got off to a strong start in April before limping through May with a 13-14 record. They've taken off in June, however, by winning 13 of 19 games. Although the Marlins don't score a ton of runs (25th) nor shut opposing teams down (13th in ERA), they have been unbelievable in one-run games. How unbelievable? Well, if the result of every one-run game was flipped Miami would sit at 28-44 and in second to last in the National League. While regression may come for them eventually, they have a juicy matchup against the ice-cold Pirates on deck.
Lefty Braxton Garrett (3-2) makes his 14th start of the season for the Marlins tonight. The 25-year-old is having a strong season for the Marlins – maintaining a 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 13 starts. Garrett has exhibited pinpoint accuracy this season – setting career-best marks with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. Although he allows more than his fair share of hard contact, Garrett excels at forcing batters to chase and whiff. For the season, he sits in the 84th percentile in Chase Rate and the 72nd in Whiff Rate. Additionally, Garrett carries a ton of momentum into tonight's start. Over his last four outings, he allowed more than a single run just once – going 2-0 over that span. With 17 strikeouts in his last 11.1 innings, Garrett could be in line for another dominant start considering the Pirates rank just 22nd in runs and 20th in OPS.
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick
Despite Pirrsburgh's recent skid, they catch my eye as an intriguing underdog pick tonight. While Mitch Keller has been up and down of late, the Pirates' offensive success against lefties gives me a ton of confidence in the Buccos tonight.
Final Pirates-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-178)
