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The MLB season continues as the Pittsburgh Pirates look to pick up the win on the road in New York when they take on the Mets in the third game of their series on Wednesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Mets prediction and pick.
Pirates-Mets Projected Starters
Bailey Falter vs. Clay Holmes
Bailey Falter – (2-3) with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP
Last Start: Falter earned the win against Atlanta on Friday, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out three over six scoreless innings.
2025 Road Splits: Falter has struggled on the road, where he is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 19.1 innings.
Clay Holmes – (5-1) with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP
Last Start: Holmes picked up the win in Friday's 7-2 victory over the Cubs, allowing one run on three hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out five.
2025 Home Splits: Holmes has been solid at home, where he is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 17.1 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Mets Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (+118)
Moneyline: +250
New York Mets: -1.5 (-142)
Moneyline: -350
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, SportsNet New York, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Bailey Falter and the Pittsburgh Pirates are poised to get the better of Clay Holmes and the New York Mets on Wednesday, thanks to a combination of Falter’s recent consistency and an underlying offensive resurgence. Falter has quietly put together a solid stretch, allowing three earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this season, including a recent six-inning, two-hit shutout against Atlanta. While he doesn't overpower hitters, his ability to limit baserunners and generate soft contact has kept the Pirates in games. This reliability on the mound gives Pittsburgh a strong foundation against a Mets lineup that, while talented, can be streaky.
The Pirates’ offense, despite bottom-line struggles, is due for positive regression. Statcast metrics reveal Pittsburgh as the unluckiest lineup in baseball, with expected stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) far outpacing actual production. Their approach at the plate is disciplined, and their contact quality is above league average, suggesting a breakout is imminent. As the Pirates get healthier and their underlying numbers normalize, they’re primed to capitalize on any mistakes from Holmes, who, despite his strong start as a Mets starter, has shown occasional lapses in command. Look for Falter’s steadiness and the Pirates’ overdue bats to push them past the Mets in this matchup.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Clay Holmes and the New York Mets are well-positioned to defeat Bailey Falter and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, riding the momentum of Holmes’ strong transition to the starting rotation and a formidable Mets offense. Holmes enters the matchup with a 5-1 record, a 2.74 ERA, and 44 strikeouts over 42.2 innings, showcasing impressive adaptability and a deepening pitch mix that’s kept hitters off balance. His ability to rebound from tough innings and rack up strikeouts, even without his best sinker, has been a key factor in his early-season success for the Mets. Holmes’ command and growing confidence as a starter make him a tough challenge for a Pirates lineup that has struggled to produce runs consistently.
Offensively, the Mets have surged to the top of the NL East, led by Pete Alonso’s .337 average and 27 RBIs, with Brandon Nimmo providing power and on-base skills at the top of the order. The Mets’ lineup has shown depth and the ability to manufacture runs, taking advantage of opportunities against pitchers like Falter, who has posted a 4.36 ERA and allowed 31 hits in 43.1 innings this season. With Holmes’ steady hand on the mound and the Mets’ offense firing on all cylinders, New York is poised to control the game and secure a win over Pittsburgh.
Final Pirates-Mets Prediction & Pick
Expect the Mets to have the upper hand in Wednesday’s matchup against the Pirates. Clay Holmes has been steady in his new starting role, mixing pitches effectively and limiting hard contact. The Mets’ offense, anchored by Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, has shown the ability to score in bunches and capitalize on mistakes. While Bailey Falter has been reliable for Pittsburgh, his tendency to allow contact could spell trouble against New York’s deep lineup. Look for the Mets to build an early lead behind Holmes and maintain control, ultimately outpacing the Pirates for a decisive win at Citi Field.
Final Pirates-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets ML (-350), Over 8 (-105)
