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Qinwen Zheng faces Aryna Sabalenka. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Zheng Sabalenka prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Zheng Sabalenka.
Qinwen Zheng might not be a household name to an American tennis audience, but she is building a substantial career resume. Zheng made the final of the 2024 Australian Open this past winter and played Aryna Sabalenka in the final. Sabalenka won the match easily, but Zheng had made a big statement by making her first major-tournament singles championship match. If anyone thought that would be the biggest accomplishment for Zheng in 2024, such a view was reasonable … but it turned out to be wrong.
Zheng proceeded to win the gold medal at the Summer Olympics in France. That is impressive enough in its own right, but what made the achievement extra special is that Zheng — playing on red clay at Roland Garros in Paris — beat Iga Swiatek, the World No. 1 and the world's best female clay-court player en route to the gold medal. Zheng's win occurred in the semifinals. Zheng then beat Donna Vekic in the Olympic final to win gold for China.
Now Zheng has earned a rematch with Sabalenka in the semis. The winner will be the favorite in the semifinals against the winner of the Paula Badosa-Emma Navarro quarterfinal match. There's a very good chance that the winner of Zheng-Sabalenka will play in Saturday's final. It's a high-stakes match between players who have played in huge matches earlier in 2024. If Zheng can upset Sabalenka, she will begin to be more of a known quantity — and a star — in American tennis communities.
Here are the Zheng-Sabalenka U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Qinwen Zheng-Aryna Sabalenka
Game Spread:
Zheng +4.5: -124
Sabalenka -4.5: -108
Moneyline:
Zheng +290
Sabalenka -375
To Win First Set:
Zheng +225
Sabalenka -290
Total Games In Match:
Over 21.5: -112
Under 21.5: -118
Total Games Won:
Zheng over 9.5: -116
Zheng under 9.5: -116
Sabalenka over 12.5: -120
Sabalenka under 12.5: -110
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Qinwen Zheng Will Win
Zheng has not reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open out of nowhere. Anything but. She had a strong Australian Open and has followed that up with another impressive showing at a hardcourt major tournament. Then she beat Iga Swiatek on red clay and won an Olympic gold medal. She is definitely an in-form player. She is riding a wave of supreme confidence. She is tough. She has come back from a one-set deficit earlier in this tournament. She has a lot of resolve and resilience. She is not easily rattled.
Having played Sabalenka in a major final should give her a clearer understanding of how to handle both Sabalenka herself and also the weight of the occasion. Chances are she won't be nearly as intimidated by Sabalenka here, after losing the Australian Open final fairly convincingly. Zheng carries herself well and should be expected to keep each set close. With a 4.5-game spread lined up for this match, Zheng could lose 6-4, 6-4 and still cover. That looks like an attractive bet from where we sit.
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Sabalenka missed Wimbledon because of a shoulder injury. She did not feel well and needed medication during her quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva at the French Open earlier this year. She won the Australian Open. When Sabalenka is healthy — as she is now — she is the best female hardcourt player in the world. She has won two straight Australian Opens and is two wins from making two straight U.S. Open finals. She will take control of this match, just as she took control of the Aussie Open final against Zheng several months ago.
Final Qinwen Zheng-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Zheng, but Sabalenka could easily win this match by a larger margin than 4.5 games. Our official recommendation is to pass on this match.
Final Qinwen Zheng-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick: Zheng +4.5 games
