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The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds for the third of a four-game series. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Nationals prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Reds enter the match-up as winners of three straight games and six of their last seven. In game one, it was a two-run shot by Joey Votto in the fourth inning that made the difference, as the Reds won 3-2. Yesterday saw Brett Kennedy get his first win since 2018. Elly De La Cruz continued his hot hitting, with four hits in four at-bats, while also stealing a base. It was one of six bases the Reds stole the win. Meanwhile, Jonathan India hit two home runs in the game. Nick Senzel added another home run to give the Reds six runs off of Patrick Corbin in the victory.
Here are the Reds-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Nationals Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+134)
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 9.5 (-110)
Under: 9.5 (-110)
How To Watch Reds vs. Nationals
TV: BSOH/MASN
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds may be the hottest team in all of baseball, winning 18 of their last 22 games. That has placed them in first place in the NL Central with a 47-39 record on the season. The offense has been solid. They are seventh in runs scored, 10th in batting average, and 11th in slugging while sitting third in on-base percentage. Rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz has been a huge part of the recent success of the Reds.
Since getting the call-up on June 6th, De La Cruz has hit .308 with three home runs and 13 RBIs. He has also stolen ten bases and scored 23 runs. He has struck out a fair amount, 35 times so far, but that is to be expected. De La Cruz has already made a massive impact on this offense and will be looking to continue that today.
Meanwhile, Spencer Steer has been hot. In the last six games, he is batting .455 with two home runs, five RBIs, and a stolen base. He has also walked five times to give him a .556 OBP in that time. Tyler Stephenson is joining him in the hot hitting, with a .444 batting average in his last six games. He has driven in four runs and scored five times while also drawing four walks. The RBI production continues with Jonathan India. While he is hitting just .208 in the last six games, he has three home runs, eight RBIs, and scored six times.
Graham Ashcraft will be taking the mound today for the Reds. He is 3-6 on the season with a 6.66 ERA. The last month has been bad for him though. In June, he pitched in four games, amassing just 17.1 innings. In that time, he allowed 20 runs, good for a 10.38 ERA. There is hope though. In his last start, he had one of the best of his season. Ashcraft went 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts, giving up just a solo home run in a no-decision.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Nationals offense has been right on pace for their season as of late. On the year they average 4.12 runs per game, which places them 26th in the majors in terms of total runs scored. As of the last ten games, they have averaged four runs a game, which has resulted in five wins. It has been pitching to let them down at times this year. They are 26th in terms of team ERA, 20th in quality starts, 28th in WHIP, and 27th in opponent batting average.
Josiah Gray has been one the best pitchers for the Nationals this year and he gets the start today. He is 6-6 on the season with a 3.30 ERA. His last two starts have been great. He has gone a combined 11.1 innings giving up just one run while striking out 14. It was a nice rebound for him from two bad starts in which he gave up ten runs in 12 innings of work. It will all be about running support for Gray in this one. He has gotten two or fewer runs of support six times this year, which has resulted in five of his losses.
Stone Garrett has not been playing a ton as of late, but when he is, he is producing. He has just nine at-bats in his last five games, but he has five hits in those at-bats. He also has two home runs and a double in there, resulting in six RBIs. Jeimer Candelario has been scoring a chunk of those runs. He has scored six times in the last week while driving in three on two home runs and a double. He is hitting just .250 in the last week but has scored 60% of the time when he has reached base.
Lane Thomas is also continuing to hit well. He is hitting .333 in the last week with two doubles. He has also scored twice in that period and driven in two runs. Overall, while no individual player is hitting a lot of RBIs, the collective has been solid. In the last week, 11 of the 13 guys to take an at-bat for the Nationals have driven in at least one run. If they can get back to some of the speed they showed early in the year, having just one stolen base in the last week, they could produce a few more runs.
Final Reds-Nationals Prediction & Pick
In the pitching match the Nationals have the edge. While the gulf between them seems large it is not. Ashcraft has an expected ERA a full run lower than his current one, while Gray has an expected ERA that is higher than his current one. Still, even with the expected ERAs, Gray has had a better season. This comes down to if the Nationals can score a few runs. They have shown as of late, if they get a weak pitcher, they can score. They will do that again today. The Nationals cover this one.
Final Reds-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-162)
