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Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds travel to the Steel City to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Pirates prediction and pick.
Reds-Pirates Projected Starters
Nick Lodolo vs. Bailey Falter
Nick Lodolo (7-2) with a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Last Start: Lodolo won his fourth straight start last time out. He went six innings giving up seven hits, and two runs. He struck out six in a 4-2 win over the Guardians.
2024 Road Splits: Lodolo has been solid on the road this year. He is 3-1 in four starts with a 2.55 ERA and an opponent batting average of just .159.
Bailey Falter (3-4) with a 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Last Start: It was a struggle last time out for Falter. He went four innings, giving up eight hits and a walk. That would result in three runs scored as Falter took the loss to the Cardinals.
2024 Home Splits: Falter has been solid at home this year. He is 2-1 in six starts with a 3.53 ERA and a .218 opponent batting average. Still, home runs have been an issue at home. Falter has given up seven home runs in 35.2 innings of work at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Pirates Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -130
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +110
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Reds vs. Pirates
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
TV: BSOH/SNP
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Reds are 16th in the majors in runs scored while sitting 26th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 19th in slugging. They are led by Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz is hitting .235 on the year with a .334 on-base percentage. He has 11 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs. This has led to 31 RBIs. De La Cruz has also stolen 36 bases and scored 47 times. Spencer Steer leads the team in RBIs this year. He is hitting .236 on the year with a .331 on-base percentage. He has eight home runs and 42 RBIs while scoring 32 times. Rounding out the top bats of the year with Jeimer Candelario. He is hitting .252 this year to lead the team. He has 12 home runs and 25 RBIs while scoring 26 times this season.
Candelario is also hitting well in the last week. He is hitting .450 over the last with three home runs and three doubles. This has led to a team-leading nine RBIs over the last five games. Scoring a lot is Elly De La Cruz. He has hit .235 in the last week but has been getting on base at a .409 rate. He has a home run and two RBIs while stealing two bases and scoring six times. Also scoringwell is TJ Friedl. He is hitting just .227 but with a home run and two RBIs plus four runs scored.
Current members of the Reds have 37 lifetimes of at-bats against Bailey Falter. They are hitting .405 against him with four home runs and nine RBIs. Tyler Stephenson is five for eight with a double, a home run, and four RBIs. Meanwhile, Spencer Steer is four for six with a home run and two RBIs, while Jeimer Candelario has one hit in two at-bats, with a two-run home run.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are 22nd in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 21st in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds leads the way. He is hitting .267 on the year with a .334 on-base percentage. He has nine home runs and 38 RBIs this year while scoring 28 times. Oneil Curz is also hitting well this year. He is hitting .251 with nine home runs and 28 RGBIs. Cruz has scored 20 times. Andrew McCutchen is proving ageless this year. He is hitting .243 on the year with a team-leading ten home runs. He has 22 RBIs and 36 runs scored on the year.
Bryan Reynolds has been solid in the last week as well. He is hitting .320 with a .370 on-base percentage. He has two doubles, a triple, and a home run while driving in three RBIs and scoring three times. Jack Suwinski is also hitting well. He is hitting .231 in the last week with a home run and three RBIs. He has scored four times. Rounding out the top bats is Rowdy Tellez. He has hit .357 in the last week, with two RBIs.
Members of the Pirates have 30 career at-bats against Nick Lodolo. They are hitting .300 with a home run and three RBIs. The home run comes from Andrew McCutchen. It is his only hit in nine at-bats against Lodolo.
Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick
These two teams have been almost identical this year. They entered the series with the same record and had similar statistics. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going in this one with Nick Lodolo. He has been pitching great and will continue to do so in this one. Take the Reds.
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Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Reds ML (-130)
