UFC Vegas 111: Gabriel Bonfim versus Randy Brown continues on the main card with a fight between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Simon-Barcelos prediction and pick.
Ricky Simon (22-6) snapped a three-fight losing streak with a brutal KO of Javid Basharat in February, then followed up with a dominant unanimous decision win over Cameron Smotherman. The veteran bantamweight is back in form and carries momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Raoni Barcelos.
Raoni Barcelos (20-5) enters UFC Vegas 111 after scoring a unanimous decision win over Cody Garbrandt at UFC Atlanta, snapping a three-fight skid. Prior to that, Barcelos defeated Payton Talbott via decision and Cristian Quinonez by late submission, showing grit and veteran craft as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ricky Simon.
Here are the UFC Vegas 111 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 111 odds: Ricky Simon-Raoni Barcelos odds
Ricky Simon:
Raoni Barcelos:
Over 2.5 Rounds: -154
Under 2.5 Rounds: +120
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Ricky Simon will win
- Last Fight: (W) Cameron Smotherman – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Ricky Simon’s relentless wrestling and pressure style make him a nightmare matchup for Raoni Barcelos at UFC Vegas 111. Simon averages over 6.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes, pressing opponents against the cage and draining their energy with constant level changes and chain wrestling.
Barcelos is dangerous on the feet, but Simon’s ability to close distance, absorb shots, and dictate where the fight takes place is a proven game-changer. His success against strikers relies on mixing boxing entries with single legs, often overwhelming opponents with both pace and physicality.
Once on top, Simon lands effective ground-and-pound and advances position methodically, racking up critical control time that wins rounds in the eyes of judges. Barcelos’ grappling is skilled, but consistent takedowns and positional dominance limit his opportunities to mount offense from the bottom.
Simon is also durable under fire and can push a torrid pace for all three rounds, outlasting foes with his cardio and mental toughness. If Simon imposes his grinding style early, he can frustrate Barcelos, nullify his striking, and secure a decision win or late finish this Saturday at UFC Vegas 111.
Why Raoni Barcelos will win
- Last Fight: (W) Cody Garbrandt – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Raoni Barcelos’ elite striking and counter-wrestling offer a dynamic threat to Ricky Simon at UFC Vegas 111. Barcelos averages 5+ significant strikes landed per minute and excels at disrupting opponents with crisp boxing, throttle-control leg kicks, and seamless combinations that break rhythm.
Simon’s wrestling is relentless, but Barcelos owns an 85% takedown defense rate—among the highest at bantamweight. By timing sprawls and scrambling to his feet, Barcelos can nullify Simon’s top control and force the fight into open space where his speed and precision shine.
Barcelos has also shown exceptional durability, rarely succumbing to pressure and adapting well against grinding foes. If Simon gets overeager on entries, Barcelos can punish with knees, uppercuts, and slick fight IQ, capitalizing on any lapses in Simon’s striking defense.
Momentum favors Barcelos after decisive wins over Cody Garbrandt and Payton Talbott, restoring his confidence and killer instinct. Expect Barcelos to manage range, pick his shots, and force Simon to chase—paving the way for a clear-cut decision or stunning finish as he aims to climb the UFC ranks this Saturday at UFC Vegas 111.
Final Ricky Simon-Raoni Barcelos prediction & pick
Saturday’s clash between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos at UFC Vegas 111 promises to be a high-paced, tightly contested bantamweight war. Simon’s edge comes from relentless wrestling—he averages over five takedowns per fight and excels at forcing opponents to defend rather than mount their own offense.
Barcelos will look to keep things standing, where he lands nearly five significant strikes per minute and owns a slight edge in power and accuracy. However, Simon’s ability to chain wrestle and keep the fight in his world is expected to be the difference over three rounds.
Simon’s fight-changing pressure and control time often sway judges, even if he’s not landing big damage. If he’s able to grind Barcelos down and avoid the biggest counters, his top game and gas tank should carry him through the deeper rounds.
While Barcelos’ dangerous hands and veteran savvy always make him a live underdog, the pick is Ricky Simon to outwork and outwrestle Barcelos en route to a hard-fought unanimous decision this weekend at UFC Vegas 111.
Final Ricky Simon-Raoni Barcelos Prediction & Pick: Ricky Simon (-175), Over 2.5 Rounds (-250)
