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The Houston Astros kicked off the series against the Kansas City Royals with a 6-3 victory on Thursday night. It snapped a streak of six consecutive wins for the Royals. The Royals had climbed to a tie for first in the American League Central after three straight wins over the Cleveland Guardians, but two losses have knocked them back. It has been an epic climb for the Royals, and the race for the division isn't over yet if the Guardians continue to struggle. The Astros are also battling for the top spot in their division, as they sit four games ahead of the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. The Mariners' struggles opened the door for the Astros to pad the lead, but Houston has also lost six of their past ten. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Astros prediction and pick.
Royals-Astros Projected Starters
Cole Ragans vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Cole Ragans is 10-8 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Ragans' last start was on the road against the Cleveland Guardians. He pitched 4 innings with 4 strikeouts, allowing 3 hits, 4 walks, and 1 earned run. He had 23.5 pitches per inning, leading the Royals to pull him after the fourth for his shortest outing of the season.
Ragans is 4-3 on the road, allowing a 2.68 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has been much better on the road than at home this season.
Yusei Kikuchi is 6-9 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Kikuchi's last start was on the road against the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched 5 2/3 innings with 4 strikeouts, allowing 2 hits, 3 walks, 3 earned runs, and a home run. The Astros have won six straight games with Kikuchi on the hill.
Kikuchi is 2-7 at home with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Astros Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +120
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Royals vs. Astros
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Royals have won four of Ragans' last five starts thanks to him allowing just five total earned runs in those starts. The one loss came in the outing before his last one, where he allowed four earned runs in five innings to the Los Angeles Angels. It is his only real blemish on the road this season, as he has been lights out for most of those outings away from Kaufmann Stadium.
It's a thin margin, but the Royals have been a better offensive team overall than the Astros over their last ten games. Kansas City is hitting .262 with a .316 on-base percentage, averaging 4.8 runs/nine.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros have been better at hitting lefty pitching over their last ten games, which could be the difference in this game. They batted .222 with a .327 on-base percentage but averaged 4.4 runs/nine.
The Astros hitting better against lefties than the Royals could give them an upper hand early in the game, and they also have the advantage later. The Royals' bullpen has a 6.82 ERA over their last three games, while the Astros have been getting some stellar pitching from their relievers, owning a 2.22 ERA over the same span.
Final Royals-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Astros have the advantage in a battle of lefty starting pitchers and have an advantage in the bullpen. There isn't much separating these two teams, so it's these small edges that we have to exploit. Take Houston to escape with the win at home and a seventh-straight Kikuchi start.
Final Royals-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros ML (-142)
