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Lugo and Baz meet in the series finale in Tampa Bay! These two teams have started slowly, but both are playing well coming into this series. The Royals took Game 1 between the two teams. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Rays prediction and pick.
Royals-Rays Projected Starters
Seth Lugo vs. Shane Baz
Seth Lugo (2-3) with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts through eight innings.
Away Splits: (0-2) 4.73 ERA
Shane Baz (3-0) with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts through seven innings.
Home Splits: (2-0) 3.22 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Rays Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: +120
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
How to Watch Royals vs. Rays
Time: 1:10 pm ET/10:10 am PT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Sun/FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Royals played well last season, posting an 86-76 record. However, they started this season with a 15-15 record and have won seven of their previous eight games. Their bats and pitching were both top 10 units in the MLB last year. The bats have started slowly this season, while the pitching is still one of the better units in the league. Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans (dealing with an injury), Michael Wacha, and Kris Bubic make up a monster pitching staff for Kansas City and have been huge this season. Their bats are also significant, led by Bobby Witt Jr., Jonathan India, Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey, Hunter Renfroe, and Vinnie Pasquantino. The Royals have the talent and have stayed red-hot coming into this season.
The Royals are starting Lugo on the mound. He has a 2-3 record, a 3.08 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP. He has allowed 14 runs on 29 hits with 12 walks and 29 strikeouts through 38 innings across six starts this season. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.4. The Royals have gone 3-3 in his five starts this year. Lugo has been great on the mound and a key ace for the Royals this season. Lugo can slow down a deep roster of sluggers for the Rays.
The Royals' offense was outstanding last season but has started slowly this season. They are 25th in team batting average at .226 after finishing last season with a .248. Witt Jr. and Pasquantino have been great at showcasing the balance of this offense. Witt Jr. leads in batting average at .316, in OBP at .385, and in total hits with 36. Then, Pasquantino leads in home runs with three and in RBI with 16. The Royals have a lot of talent on offense, but they need to right the ship. This is a tough matchup to do that against Baz on the mound and the road in Tampa Bay.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays were extremely inconsistent and mediocre last season, with an 80-82 record, and then they have a 14-14 record so far this season, winning five of their last six coming into this series. The Rays' offense struggled last season, but they have started this year red-hot as a top-10 unit. The pitching has also stayed steady after finishing in the top 10 last season. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Jonny DeLuca, Jake Mangum, Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Kameron Misner. On the mound, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen have been the best aces for the Rays. The Rays have much to like this season and the talent to make some noise, but consistency is key, and they need to keep winning for momentum.
The Rays are starting Baz on the mound. He has a 3-0 record, a 2.45 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He has allowed eight runs on 20 hits with nine walks and 36 strikeouts through 29.1 innings across five starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of four. Baz has been a solid pitcher for the Rays, and they have a 4-1 record when he starts. This is an excellent matchup for him against a struggling Royals offense.
The offense for the Rays has gotten red-hot to start the year. They are eighth in team batting average at .252 after finishing with a .230 last season. Lowe, Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda are the best players on this balanced offense. Aranda leads the team in batting average at .294 and OBP at .396. Then, Caminero leads in home runs with six, Lowe in RBI with 15, and Diaz in total hits with 30. This offense is playing well, but gets a tough matchup against Lugo on the mound, making this an X-factor matchup.
Final Royals-Rays Prediction & Pick
This should become a pitching duel between Baz and Lugo. The Rays are the better offense and probably still win outright, but the Royals cover and keep this close.
Final Royals-Rays Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-172)
