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Liberty looks to move to 5-0 as they face fellow Conference USA member, Sam Houston. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Sam Houston- Liberty prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Liberty enters the game at 4-0 on the season and already 2-0 in conference play. The closest game of the season so far. was in week one of the year against Bowling Green. Liberty led 24-0 in the game, but after a 14-yard touchdown run for Bowling Green, and a blocked kick returned for a touchdown brought the lead to just 24-14. Ultimately, Liberty would win 34-24. Liberty would dominate the next three games. First, it was a conference game with New Mexico State that they would win 33-17, then a 55-27 victory over Buffalo, and finally a 38-6 win over FIU before the bye-week.
Meanwhile, Sam Houston is looking for their first win of the season. They have struggled heavily on offense this year. In the first two games, they lost a combined 27-3. Then against Houston, they scored their first offensive touchdown of the year, scoring in the first quarter, but losing 38-7. Last week, the offense showed some life. After being down 7-0, Keegan Shoemaker threw two touchdowns in the first quarter, and they ran another one in to be up 21-7 at the half. Jacksonville State would come back though and after a failed PAT, would be down just one in the fourth. Sam Houston scored again with 1:11 left on the clock, but Jacksonville State covered 75 yards in 58 seconds, plus converted the two-point conversion to force overtime, where they would win 35-28.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Sam Houston-Liberty Odds
Sam Houston: +20.5 (-105)
Liberty: -20.5 (-115)
Over: 45.5 (-115)
Under: 45.5 (-105)
How to Watch Sam Houston vs. Liberty Week 6
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Sam Houston Will Cover The Spread
Keegan Shoemaker returned for Sam Houston and just had the best game of his season. After struggling in the first two games, and then missing the next one, he was solid in the loss to Jacksonville State. Last time out, he was 22 for 37 passing with 290 yards and two touchdowns. He did throw an interception in the game and had two turnover-worthy passes. Still, Shoemaker did great with pressure in the game. He was pressured on just 11 of 39 dropbacks and was not sacked while scrambling away from pressure twice in the game. Overall, Sam Houston is coming off the best pass-blocking game of their season.
Sam Houston will need to control the clock to cover in this game. The running game will be a big part of that. John Gentry is the top running back in this offense. He has run 45 times this year for 128 yards. Gentry is not getting the best blocking overall, with just 1.2 yards of blocking before first contact on the season. He has also fumbled once in the year. As a team, Sam Houston has run for just 307 yards. That is good for just 2.6 yards per carry, with three scores and six fumbles.
Sam Houston has had some solid receiving performances. Noah Smith has brought in 17 of 23 targets this year. That is good for 158 yards and a touchdown this year, but he does have two drops on the season. Meanwhile, Gentry out of the backfield has been highly reliable. He has brought in 11 of 13 targets this season for 123 yards and a score. He is also doing a lot of work after the catch, with 142 yards after the catch this season.
The defense this year has been solid against the run this year. They have 82 stops for offensive failures this season on 139 attempts. They have also forced three fumbles. Leading the way is Trevor Williams. He has 32 tackles this year with 21 stops for offensive failures. Still, Sam Houston needs to put more pressure on the quarterback. They have just four sacks this year in four games, with just 32 pressures. No player has more than one sack this year, and only Issiah Nixon has over five quarterback pressures. Liberty is also dominating in coverage. This year, they have ten interceptions with 15 pass breakups, two dropped interceptions and 19 forced incompletions.
Why Liberty Will Cover The Spread
Kaidon Salter has been great for Liberty this year. He is 53-92 passing for 919 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. According to PFF, Salter has made nine big-time throws with just one interception and two other turnover-worthy passes. He is getting great blocking this year and working well with pressure. Salter has been pressured just 36 times on 110 dropbacks while being sacked just three times. He has also scrambled away for positive yards 15 times this year.
Salter has run for 133 yards in scramble yards with another 131 yards on designed runs. He has scored five times on the ground and fumbled just twice. Liberty also has a great combination of backs running the ball as well. Quinton Cooley has run for 323 yards on the ground this year, with great blocking. He is nearly getting three yards before making first contact. Second, Billy Lucas has run for 244 yards on 39 rushes. He has scored twice this year. Overall, the two of them are both averaging over six yards per carry, with 24 forced missed tackles.
The defense for Liberty has been stellar this year. They have made 49 stops for offensive failures on just 85 attempts this year. They have not forced a fumble on the ground this year though. On the pass rush, Liberty has 79 pressures on the quarterback in just for games this year. They also have 12 sacks. CJ Bazile Jr. leads the way with 15 pressures, eight hits, and two sacks this year.
Final Sam Houston-Liberty Prediction & Pick
Sam Houston has not shown a lot on offense this year, meanwhile, Liberty has a stellar defense that can bottle the weapons they have up. Sam Houston does not have a good running game and will focus on the pass. Against Liberty, that is a recipe for turnovers. Meanwhile, Liberty can score a lot of points quickly. They have gotten great play all year long from their quarterback and will continue to do so in this game. Sam Houston will turn the ball over plenty in this game and Liberty gets an easy win.
Final Sam Houston-Liberty Prediction & Pick: Liberty -20.5 (-115)
