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Sebastian Korda takes on Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open. Our French Open odds series has our Korda Alcaraz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Korda Alcaraz.
The 2024 French Open moves into the third round, with 32 ATP players left to fend for a prestigious championship. Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner, 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic, and major champion Daniil Medvedev have all had injury or fitness problems in the weeks leading up to Roland Garros. They have all been less than fully healthy, less than their full selves in some way. The ATP Tour had a very clear-cut hierarchy for a long time, with Djokovic joining Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer and — to a lesser but still real and substantial extent — Andy Murray as part of a small group of people who regularly made major-tournament semifinals and finals. The ATP had a core group of favorites for nearly two decades, but now, with so many top players dealing with fitness questions, the men's tournament in France is freshly uncertain and wide-open.
Carlos Alcaraz is similarly less than fully fit, dealing with an arm injury which has affected his consistency. If you watched his second-round match against Jesper De Jong, you saw a man battling with himself. Alcaraz dipped in and out of form, his shots erratic and his sense of control not always in evidence. His serve was broken in consecutive games. He lost the third set, 6-2. This came against an opponent ranked No. 176, and never higher than No. 135. Alcaraz was battling early in the fourth set against a player he would normally blow out when healthy. It's not so much that Alcaraz is in a slump; he's simply not 100-percent fit. He needs time to rest his arm and get it back to 100 percent, but this is a major tournament, and Alcaraz wants to fight for the title, knowing that his competitors are also struggling physically. Now Alcaraz faces a player who is ranked a lot higher than 176: Sebastian Korda, one of 32 seeded players at this year's French Open.
Here are the Sebastian Korda-Carlos Alcaraz French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
French Open Odds: Sebastian Korda-Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Game spread
Korda +7.5: -116
Alcaraz -7.5: -116
Money line
Korda: +500
Alcaraz: -900
To win first set
Korda: +300
Alcaraz: -390
Total Games In Match
Over 32.5: -118
Under 32.5: -112
Korda over 12.5 games: -124
Korda under 12.5 games: -108
Alcaraz over 19.5 games: -108
Alcaraz under 19.5 games: -124
How To Watch Sebastian Korda vs Carlos Alcaraz
TV: Tennis Channel
Stream: Tennis Channel Plus
Time: Approx. 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT
*Watch Sebastian Korda vs Carlos Alcaraz LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Sebastian Korda Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 7.5 games for this match means that if Kordan can lose three sets by an average of two games per set, he will cover. If Alcaraz wins this match 6-4, 7-5, 6-4, the final score in terms of games won would be 19-13 Alcaraz. Korda would cover the spread, since he would lose by a total of six games. Given Alcaraz's less than convincing form, Korda — a top-30 seed — should think he can grab at least one set. If he does grab one set, Korda will likely cover. The only way a tennis player can fail to cover the spread when winning a set is if he gets completely destroyed in the three sets he loses. That's unlikely here. If Korda wins a set, he covers.
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
If Alcaraz can win by at least three games in two different sets, and then win by two games in a third set, he will cover. Alcaraz winning 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 would enable him to cover the spread: 18 games won to 10 games lost. That scoreline is not a blowout, and yet it would still be comfortable. That's the standard Alcaraz has to reach to cover.
Final Sebastian Korda-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick
You could bet that Alcaraz will win more than 19.5 games if you think Korda will win one set. That's actually a reasonable play to make, and the price (-108) is really good. However, the safer and higher-percentage play is Korda +7.5 games. Why? Here's why: We mentioned above that Korda could lose each set by two games and still cover the spread. That means Korda doesn't even have to win a set to cover the spread. As long as all three sets are close, Korda covers. That gives you more of a cushion for a similar price (Korda +7.5 at -116). The risk is a lot lower.
Final Sebastian Korda-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick: Korda +7.5 games
