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We're back with yet another betting prediction and pick for the UFC's upcoming fight card from Macau. This next bout takes place in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division and will feature Road to the UFC finalists in China's Shi Ming and Feng Xiaocan. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ming-Xiaocan prediction and pick.
Shi Ming (16-5) will be fighting in the Road to the UFC finale after notching two decision wins over Ye Dam Seo and Huaxiang Dong. She's a longtime martial artist, beginning her pro career back in 2015 and finally getting her shot on the biggest stage at the age of 30. Ming stands 5'2″ with a 60-inch reach.
Feng Xiaocan (10-2) find herself in the finale following a knockout win over Kiran Singh and a unanimous decision over Miki Motono. At just 22 years old, she's been fighting in the MMA circuits since 2019 and has a kickboxing history even prior to then. She'll make her debut as the stern betting favorite. Xiaocan stands 5'7″ with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Macau Odds: Shi Ming-Feng Xiaocan Odds
Shi Ming: +260
Feng Xiaocan: -325
Over 2.5 rounds: -445
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
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Why Shi Ming Will Win
Shi Ming has a medical degree in China and the real-life doctor transfers much of her intelligence to the cage when she's fighting. While she's not the most physically-gifted fighter, she's very good about sticking to a game plan and will win rounds simply with her control time in the grappling. She also does a great job of limited damage on herself, allowing her to remain fresh and pressing opponents against the cage.
Shi Ming will have to overcome some reach and height differences in this one, but expect her to still stand in front of her opponent as they trade shots. Ming is very good about exploiting her opponents' weaknesses, so it may be smart for her to grapple with Xiacon and put her on her back where she's most uncomfortable. From there, Ming can stand to execute her ground-and-pound while negating the striking from the betting favorite. Her best chance to win this fight will be grinding out another tough decision win.
Why Feng Xiaocan Will Win
Feng Xiaocan was arguably the most promising prospect to come out of the Road the the UFC tournament with her unique combination of size and skill. At 5-foot-7, she's very tall for the Strawweight Division and she uses her size very well when leveraging opponents into bad spots. While she's not the best fighter off of her back, she's extremely dangerous when fighting from top position and if she's able to secure mount at any point, she stands a great chance to finish the fight with her ground-and-pound.
TOO BIG. TOO MUCH. TOO GOOD. 😤
Feng Xiaocan shows why she's a favorite in #RTU3 strawweight tourney with a first-round TKO! pic.twitter.com/t9vK6ArwIh
— UFC_Asia (@UFC_Asia) May 18, 2024
Feng Xiaocan is also a classically-trained kickboxer and will have a stern advantage in standing and striking against her opponent. She's also much more athletic than her counterpart has shown to be, so expect Xiaocan to be dictating the pace for much of this fight. Her reach will allow her to keep Ming on the end of her punches and if they find themselves in a clinch situation, she should be able to muscle her way into an advantageous spot on the ground.
Final Shi Ming-Feng Xiaocan Prediction & Pick
Everything will be on the line as these two finalists meet for an opportunity to fight in the UFC. Shi Ming is a longtime veteran of the sport and she fights behind an extremely intelligent game plan. In limiting her own damage and taking away from her opponent's offense, Ming does a great job of controlling the ring and earning solid minutes of top position on the ground.
However, Feng Xiaocan has arguably looked like the most impressive prospect of the tournament and she has a great chance to become a problem in this division if she's able to round-out her skill set. She'll have all the physical advantages during this fight and if she's able to keep it at a striking distance, we should see her cruise to a relatively easy decision.
While both fighters are extremely skilled, I don't see Shi Ming doing enough to really knock Xiaocan off her course. The power discrepancy will be apparent very early and I expect Xiaocan to end this fight early with her fists. Let's roll with the betting favorite and the plus money on the under.
Final Shi Ming-Feng Xiaocan Prediction & Pick: Feng Xiaocan (-325); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+310)
