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The Connecticut Sun take on the Minnesota Lynx. Check out our WNBA Playoffs odds odds series for our Sun-Lynx prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Sun Lynx.
The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun arrive at their final moment of truth in the 2024 season. It's time for a winner-take-all Game 5 between two very evenly-matched teams. The loser goes home. The winner meets the New York Liberty in the 2024 WNBA Finals. This has been a hard-fought and unpredictable series every step of the way. The Lynx's Game 3 win was the most comfortable win of the whole series, and yet the final margin was just nine points. Connecticut won by 10 points in Game 4, but only after trailing by seven at halftime. The Sun needed a 25-13 third quarter to change the game in their favor. This has been a series of sharp, abrupt twists and turns, embodied by a volatile Game 1 in which the Sun gave up a 15-0 run and then produced a 10-0 run right after it.
Game 1 was marked by Connecticut star DeWanna Bonner going 4 of 17 from the field. The Sun won anyway. Game 2 was defined in part by Minnesota star Napheesa Collier scoring only nine points. The Lynx won in spite of that. This series really has defied expectations — not in a bad way; the hoops has been consistently compelling and interesting — and the plot points have not matched the end results. Collier struggled in Game 2, as we just noted, but her team won. In Game 4, Collier was outstanding, scoring 29 points and pulling down 13 rebounds. Yet, her team lost by 10 because Connecticut's starting five was outstanding. Four Sun starters scored at least 15 points apiece and combined to go 32 of 56 from the field. Bonner, who struggled greatly from the field in the first two games of the series in Minneapolis and did not give Connecticut nearly enough to win in Game 3, finally came through in Game 4 with an 8-of-12 shooting performance which really lifted her team.
Game 5 invites so many different scenarios. If Collier plays well, can Minnesota's role players — who struggled in Game 4 — join her this time? If Bonner struggles — as she did earlier in this series — will the Sun find enough offense elsewhere?
One very interesting aspect of this series is that in the first two games played in Minneapolis, the total for the game did not exceed 147 points. The winning team did not exceed 77 points. In Games 3 and 4 in Connecticut, the total was never lower than 171 points. The losing team did not score fewer than 81. The winning team did not score fewer than 90. As the series shifts back to Minnesota for Game 5, will the style of play revert to the first two games, or have these teams cracked the code against the defenses they have faced?
Connecticut's players have more WNBA playoff experience. Minnesota's players have more speed. Connecticut has shown it can play its preferred halfcourt style on the road. Minnesota has home-court advantage in a deciding game. There are plenty of reasons to take either side. Which argument will prove to be the right one?
Here are the Sun-Lynx WNBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
WNBA Playoffs Odds: Sun-Lynx Odds
Connecticut Sun: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +152
Minnesota Lynx: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -188
Over: 151.5 (-106)
Under: 151.5 (-114)
How To Watch Sun vs Lynx
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Time: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why The Sun Can Cover The Spread/Win
The series is 2-2 and has been very even. Total points are plus-3 for Minnesota over the course of four full games. That's a tight series. With Connecticut getting 4.5 points, it seems logical that the Sun have the advantage relative to the spread. Minnesota winning comfortably is possible, but not likely.
Why The Lynx Can Cover The Spread/Win
Napheesa Collier figuring out the offensive end of the floor is huge for the Lynx. As long as the role players play better than they did in Game 4, Minnesota should win Game 5. Given that role players normally play better at home, the Lynx should feel good about their chances of winning this game decisively.
Final Sun-Lynx Prediction & Pick
This series has continuously gone against our leanings, so we're not going to tell you which way to go here. We will say that our lean is to the Sun. If you think that is reason enough to pick the Lynx, we can't really blame you.
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Final Sun-Lynx Prediction & Pick: Sun +4.5
