The UFC is back at its home in Las Vegas as we're set to bring you another slate of betting predictions and picks for the whole card, beginning in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Fellow Brazilians meet as Talita Alencar takes on Ariane Carnelossi to jumpstart the night of fights. Check our UFC odds series for the Alencar-Carnelossi prediction and pick.
Talita Alencar (6-1-1) has gone 2-1 inside the UFC since 2023. After dropping her rematch against Stephanie Luciano, Alencar rebounded with a unanimous decision over Vanessa Demopoulos in her most recent bout. She comes in the betting favorite looking for her first pair of consecutive wins in the UFC. Alencar stands 5-foot-1 with a 58.5-inch reach.
Ariane Carnelossi (15-3) is 3-2 inside the UFC since 2019, most recently winning her bout against Piera Rodriguez on a count of disqualification. While it wasn't the result she was looking for, she's now 3-1 over her last four and intent on keeping this current streak going. Carnelossi stands 5-foot-2 with a 61.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 110 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 Odds: Talita Alencar-Ariane Carnelossi Odds
Talita Alencar: -225
Ariane Carnelossi: +185
Over 2.5 rounds: -230
Under 2.5 rounds: +175
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Why Talita Alencar Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Vanessa Demopoulos – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 3 SUB
Talita Alencar comes into this bout following a dominant win over Demopoulos where she controlled 107-34 in total strikes and landed four of her five takedown attempts. It was truly a multi-faceted performance and Alencar has been doing a great job mixing her martial arts into one complete skill set. In this fight, she'll need to be sharp once again, but comes in the rightful favorite on the betting lines.
Alencar pushes a very high pace from the opening bell and given Carnelossi's previous conditioning issues, Alencar could stand to exploit her opponents' cardio in the second and third rounds. Her last five consecutive fights have gone to the judges' scorecards, so Alencar could be planning for another three rounds of control in this fight.
Her striking will also serve as an advantage and although she's working with a slight reach disadvantage, her hands are much faster and more active than Carnelossi's. She's still landing her significant strikes at just a 33% clip, so finding precision shots and landing cleanly will be the focal point for Talita Alencar throughout this fight.
Why Ariane Carnelossi Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Piera Rodriguez – DQ (intentional headbutt)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Ariane Carnelossi was granted a victory during her last fight thanks to a foul from her opponent, but she was notably behind on the striking numbers and was taken down before the fight was called. Nevertheless, a win is a win and Carnelossi has now shared the octagon with names like Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez, and was previously scheduled to fight now-champion Mackenzie Dern. With all the talent needed to be successful, Carnelossi will be looking to mount a significant winning streak with an underdog showing here.
The thing that jumps out about Carnelossi's game immediately is her overwhelming physical strength and dominance when controlling opponents on the ground. She's a BJJ black belt and has already notched one UFC win by submission, so she's always willing to welcome a scrap on the mats.
Carnelossi's striking has been coming along as well, but she may see much more success pressing Alencar against the fence and landing short shots as opposed to working from a distance. From there, she can land elbows and work her Judo throws in getting Alencar to bottom position, a solid way to steal rounds with control time on the ground.
Final Talita Alencar-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick
UFC Vegas 110 kicks off with a solid matchup at strawweight between two Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belts. Both women are very skilled in the grappling, so much so that we may see their skills cancel out as both may be wary to risk a bad position. Of the two, Ariane Carnelossi may be the one initiating clinches and takedowns more often.
Still, the speed and cardio of Alencar will be the deciding factor in this fight. Her recent wins by decision have been in dominant fashion as she's been able to push a rapid pace through three rounds. With Carnelossi's previous struggles down the stretch of fights, I expect Alencar to be pouring things on with her activity in the later rounds.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Talita Alencar to win this fight as the betting favorite, most likely doing so by judges' decision.
Final Talita Alencar-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick: Talita Alencar (-225); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-230)
