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This weekend's UFC Vegas 104 promises to be an electrifying event, headlined by the highly anticipated rematch between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze in the middleweight division. Their first encounter in 2023 saw Vettori secure a unanimous decision victory, but Dolidze has since gained momentum with impressive wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland.
Vettori, ranked No. 8 in the middleweight division, returns after a prolonged injury layoff, looking to regain his form and climb the rankings. Dolidze, currently ranked No. 11, aims to break into the top ten with a win. The co-main event features a welterweight clash between Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, adding depth to the card.
The undercard is equally compelling, with notable matchups like Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann in the heavyweight division and Su Young You vs. AJ Cunningham at bantamweight. Cortes-Acosta seeks to extend his winning streak, while Spann makes his heavyweight debut after a successful stint at light heavyweight. You, fresh from a tournament win, looks to continue his ascent in the bantamweight division.
UFC Vegas 104 offers a blend of veteran clashes and rising talent, setting the stage for pivotal performances that could significantly impact the fighters' career trajectories. With its mix of experience and youthful energy, this event is poised to deliver exciting matchups and potential upsets.
Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 104 Top Betting Underdogs
Roman Dolidze: +124
Sam Hughes: +190
Kurt Holobaugh: +170
Roman Dolidze (+124) vs. Marvin Vettori
Roman Dolidze is poised to upset Marvin Vettori at UFC Vegas 104, leveraging several key advantages. Dolidze enters the bout on a two-fight winning streak, including a decisive TKO victory over Kevin Holland, showcasing his ability to dominate both on the ground and in striking exchanges. In contrast, Vettori has been inactive for nearly two years, recovering from injuries and adjusting to a new training environment, which could impact his timing and performance.
Dolidze's orthodox stance and 76-inch reach provide a significant advantage over Vettori's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach, allowing him to control the distance effectively. Additionally, Dolidze has demonstrated an ability to increase his striking output and accuracy, which could overwhelm Vettori if he fails to adapt quickly1. While Vettori is a skilled grappler, Dolidze's recent performances suggest he is capable of handling takedowns and transitioning into dominant positions25. Overall, Dolidze's momentum, physical advantages, and strategic improvements make him a strong candidate to secure a win over Vettori this weekend.
Sam Hughes (+190) vs. Stephanie Luciano
Sam Hughes is poised to upset Stephanie Luciano at UFC Vegas 104, leveraging her experience and conditioning to outlast the Brazilian prospect. Despite being the underdog, Hughes has shown resilience and a strong work ethic, which has allowed her to overcome adversity in previous fights. Her background as a track athlete provides her with superior cardio, enabling her to maintain a high pace throughout the bout. Luciano, while impressive in her recent performances, may struggle with Hughes's relentless pressure. Hughes's ability to land significant strikes at distance, as seen in her last fight against Viktoriia Dudakova, could be crucial in keeping Luciano at bay.
Although Luciano boasts strong takedown defense, Hughes's grappling attempts might not be the deciding factor; instead, her volume striking and conditioning could wear Luciano down over three rounds. Hughes's experience in the UFC, with a record of 4-5, has prepared her for the level of competition she will face. Her recent wins against lower-end opponents have shown her ability to capitalize on opportunities and outlast her opponents. Given Luciano's relatively limited UFC experience, Hughes's veteran savvy and endurance might prove too much for the Brazilian to handle, setting up an upset victory for “Sampage” this weekend.
Kurt Holobaugh (+170) vs. Alexander Hernandez
Kurt Holobaugh is poised to upset Alexander Hernandez at UFC Vegas 104, leveraging his recent momentum and well-rounded skillset. Holobaugh, having secured his first official UFC win last July, has shown significant improvement in his performances, adapting to different fighting styles and scenarios. His experience in both striking and grappling will be crucial against Hernandez, who has been inconsistent in recent fights.
Hernandez, despite his impressive debut and early UFC success, has struggled with consistency, often starting strong but faltering as fights progress. This pattern could play into Holobaugh's hands, as he excels at wearing down opponents over the course of a fight. Additionally, Holobaugh's ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground provides multiple paths to victory. His recent performances indicate a resurgence in form, which could allow him to capitalize on Hernandez's tendency to tire or make mistakes late in fights. Overall, Holobaugh's persistence, versatility, and recent success make him a strong candidate to outlast and outperform Hernandez this weekend.
