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It is an AL Central battle as the Minnesota Twins face off with the Detroit Tigers. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Tigers prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Twins come in off a shutout victory in which Byron Buxton hit two home runs yesterday. The victory over the Red Sox gave them a split in the four-game series and moved the Twins back to .500 on the season. They now sit 38-38 overall on the year, a game up on Cleveland in the AL Central. They are 5-5 in their last ten games but head into a pivotal series against the Tigers. Last weekend the Tigers took three of four games from the Twins and are making headways in the AL Central. The Tigers just took two of three from the Royals and sit at 32-41 on the season. They are just 4.5 games back of the Twins and can make up ground with a series win this weekend. They are 6-4 over their last ten games, including taking three of four from the Twins last weekend.
Here are the Twins-Tigers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Tigers Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+112)
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How To Watch Reds vs. Cubs
TV: BSNO/BSDET
Stream: MLB.TV/ ESPN+
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Pitching is the key for the Twins, as seen yesterday. Three of their last eight wins have been shutouts, and two of them held the opposition to two runs or fewer. The Twins are currently ranked first in WHIP as a pitching staff, third in opponent batting average, and fourth in Team ERA. The starters have been great this year. Last night Joe Ryan pitched a complete game shut-out victory, giving him a quality start in the process. That is just one of the 36 quality starts by pitchers this year for the Twins, which ranks them tied for second in the majors.
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Kenta Maeda will be hoping to continue that today. He will be coming off the 15-day IL to make the start in this one. He has only made four starts this year, all in April. In those starts, he went 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He pitched well in his first start, but struggled a little in the second, giving up four runs in five innings. His third start was cut short after giving up a run in two innings, and then the last start before heading to the IL was a disaster. He gave up ten runs on 11 hits in just three innings of work.
It is not clear how Maeda will do in his return to the hill today, so the Twins may need to give him some solid run support. That could be an issue for the Twins. They are 18th in runs scored this year, while sitting 24th in batting average, 23rd in OBP, and 16th in slugging. Byron Buxton was the star yesterday, as he hit his team-leading 13th home run. Still, Buxton, like many others, has struggled this month. He has driven in just four runs while batting .179. Carlos Correa also added a home run and has been one of the more consistent hitters this month. He is batting just .231, but many other regular players are hitting under .220. He has produced runs though, driving in 12 this month.
Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread
The Tigers' offense has picked up with their recent winnings. In a nine-game losing streak earlier this month, they scored just 19 runs in the nine games. That is an average of just 2.11 runs per game. Since then they have won five of seven games and scored 36 runs in the process. That is an average of 5.14 runs per game, and in the two losses, they were shut out. The recent runs of production have come from Javier Baez and Kerry Carpenter. Baez has driven in eight runs in the team's last seven games. He has a home run, two triples, and a double in that time while batting .348 in those games.
Meanwhile, Carpenter has driven in five runs in the seven games. He has two home runs and two doubles in that time frame while scoring five times. He is batting .318 in those seven games and has been hot all month. This month, Carpenter is hitting .372 while limiting his strikes outs to eight. Zach Short provided some offense yesterday, driving in three runs with a home run and three total hits. He has four RBIs in the last seven games while batting .308.
If the offense can continue, Joey Wentz might be able to pick up his second win of the season. Wentz pitched well enough last time against the Twins to get the win. He went six innings, gave up two hits and a walk while striking out nine. Wentz gave up two runs in the game, and as the Tigers did not score, he took the loss. He has five games this year in which he has given up two or fewer runs and either took a no-decision or a loss.
His only win of the year was a 5.2-inning outing in which he gave up a home run and two runs. He got his most run support of the season in that game and took the win. This year, Wentz only averages 3.69 runs of support per game. That ranks him 14th in the majors for the fewest runs of support per start among pitchers with ten or more starts.
Final Twins-Tigers Prediction & Pick
The Tigers have been the better team as of late. They have also faced easier competition. They are coming off a series against the Royals, while the Twins just had to face the Red Sox. Both teams have had major issues with consistency this year. The Twins only have two players that have enough at-bats so far this year to qualify for the league leaderboard. Meanwhile, the Tigers have had 12 different pitchers make starts this year. The Twins' pitching is better as a whole, but there is no telling how Maeda will perform. Wentz has been consistent but has not gotten support. He gets enough today for the Tigers to cover.
Final Twins-Tigers Prediction & Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-134)
