Subscribe
Follow Us
UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington continues on the prelims with a fight in the women's flyweight division between Casey O'Neill and Ariane Lipski. O'Neill suffered her first professional loss in her most recent bout meanwhile, Lipski won back-to-back fights for the second time in her UFC career as she comes into the biggest fight of her career. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our O'Neill-Lipski prediction and pick.
Casey O'Neill (9-1) is looking to get back into the win column after suffering her first defeat against former flyweight title challenger Jennifer Maia at UFC 286. This will be her second fight in 2023 as she hopes to end it with a big win when she takes on the surging Ariane Lipski this weekend at UFC 296.
Ariane Lipski (16-8) is coming off a close split-decision victory against Brazilian prospect Melissa Gatto. She has now won two fights in a row and is looking to win three fights in a row for the first time in her UFC career when she takes on the No. 12 ranked Casey O'Neill live at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Casey O'Neill-Ariane Lipski Odds
Casey O'Neill: -192
Ariane Lipski:+160
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +170
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Casey O'Neill Will Win
Casey O'Neill hit a bit of a road bump when she met up with former flyweight title challenger Jennifer Maia who outstruck her soundly en route to a unanimous decision victory. O'Neill was set to attempt to get back into the win column back in September against Viviane Araujo but an injury derailed that. Now she is back three months later in hopes of getting back on track when she takes on the surging Ariane Lipski.
Ariane Lipski has now won two in a row and is searching for her third win in a row coming into this matchup with O'Neill. O'Neill on the other hand has shown that she is still an elite competitor even with her first professional loss and she has the grappling skills to make this a terrifying fight for Lipski. If O'Neill is 100% healthy after her second injury in the last 14 months she has a good chance of getting back on track this weekend.
Why Ariane Lipski Will Win
Ariane Lipski is now on her second two-fight winning streak as she looked to extend her winning streak to three this weekend at UFC 296. She most recently defeated Melissa Gatto by being able to keep the fight on the feet where she defended all seven of the takedown attempts from Gatto and landed the more telling shots which gave her the nod on the judges' scorecards.
While O'Neill is a better offensive wrestler than Gatto, Lipski's improvements with her defensive since fighting grappling since her fights against Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko is what's impressive. Clearly, on the feet, Lipski will be getting the better of the exchanges and while she isn't a slouch on the mat her best path to victory is keeping this fight on the feet and at her preferred range and that is how Lipski can cause the upset victory.
Final Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a great fight between the No. 12 ranked Casey O'Neill who is looking to get back into the win column and prove that she belongs in the top 15 and Ariane Lipski who's getting her first crack at ranked opposition. Both females are going to be coming in there with a ton of steam ahead of them as they attempt to climb the ladder in the women's wide-open flyweight division.
This should be a fairly easy fight to understand how it goes. If O'Neill can bully Lipski and take her down effortlessly she will have her way with her on the mat. On the flip side, if Lipski's improved takedown defense is for real and keeps this fight on the feet she should have her way with O'Neill at range.
Given the current state of this betting line and the recent performance coupled with injuries from O'Neill, it's hard for me to back her in this spot. Going with the underdog Lipski at this price seems to be the no-brainer as she is the value side of this fight and is a very profitable fighter when betting on her as the underdog. Ultimately, O'Neill attempts to bully Lipski and take her down to no avail and then Lipski will take over and utilize her long-range attacks to outstrike O'Neill to a clear-cut decision.
Final Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Prediction & Pick: Ariane Lipski (+160), Over 2.5 Rounds (-220)
