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It's finally time for the Main Event of UFC 296 from Las Vegas as we're set to bring you our prediction and pick for the headlining bout of the night. The UFC Welterweight Championship will be on the line as the Champion Leon “Rocky” Edwards takes on the No. 3-ranked contender and former title challenger Colby “Chaos” Covington. Check out our UFC odds series for our Edwards-Covington prediction and pick.
Leon Edwards (21-3) has gone 13-2-1 en route to becoming the UFC's Welterweight Champion. It was a long road for him but he famously pulled it out of the fire with one of the most famous headkick knockouts we've seen over Kamaru Usman. After defending his strap against Usman a second time and putting the rivalry to rest, Edwards will defend his belt against the man who could have been champion all along. Leon Edwards stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Colby Covington (17-3) has gone 12-3 during his UFC career since 2014. After dropping a fight back in 2015, Covington went on an impressive run that's seen him go 9-2 and challenge for the belt twice. Of course, he was unable to top Usman in either of those fights, but many fans believe Covington did enough to win the belt. After almost two years away, he'll make his return trying to finally fulfill his championship goals. Covington stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Odds
Leon Edwards: -162
Colby Covington: +136
Over 4.5 rounds: -195
Under 4.5 rounds: +150
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Why Leon Edwards Will Win
Leon Edwards looked levels better in his rematch against Kamaru Usman and we saw him take a massive step forward as champion. Fighters often mention a huge boost in confidence when a someone becomes champion and it's clear that Edwards has that boost in his game. He'll be facing a similar volume wrestler in Colby Covington, but he's confident knowing he was able to combat the takedowns of Kamaru Usman and even mount his own offense on the ground. He's a much better grappler than people give him credit for and that's only because he's one of the best strikers in the world. If he's able to keep this fight standing and survive the forward pressure of Covington, he should be able to retain his belt.
To win this fight, Leon Edwards will have to be sharp with his striking and not underestimate Colby Covington as a boxer. Covington has been able to pressure great fighters before with his volume punching, so movement around the cage will lessen the threat of getting backed up against the fence. He'll have to be diligent about breaking space between him and Covington so he can mount some sort of offense. He'll also have to be aware of his gas tank and Covington's endless cardio, but going 10 rounds with Kamaru Usman should have him prepared for a fight like this.
Why Colby Covington Will Win
Colby Covington will be the first to argue he should have won his fight against Kamaru Usman and even Dana White says Colby Covington would be the welterweight champ if Usman wasn't around. Well, with Kamaru Usman moving to middleweight and a new champion in place, Covington is fully prepared to become the new UFC champion. His last fight was a five-round domination over Jorge Masvidal. Since, he's had some issues outside of the octagon and has had to rehab injuries, so it's been about two years since his last fight. We're not sure what we're going to get as far as a game plan from him, but we can expect wrestling and pushing the pace to be the center of his attack. With two years on the shelf, we should be seeing the most healthy and prepared version of Colby Covington.
To win this fight, Covington will have to focus on his defense and wait for Leon Edwards to make a mistake. Covington won't be able to keep up with the striking, but he does a great job of closing the distance and limiting his opponents from striking at range. We also saw Edwards continue to struggled with and accept takedowns during the two Usman fights, so the door is open for Covington to work his notorious wrestling game. While the inactivity has to be a factor, Covington will undoubtedly have the superior cardio in this fight and should look to drag it into the fifth round. He becomes more dangerous as the fight goes on and if he can get Leon Edwards to tire at any point, he could become the new champion.
Final Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Prediction & Pick
This is going to be one of the best fights on the card stylistically and we'll see two fighters at the very pinnacle of their disciplines. Colby Covington's wrestling and cardio will be his main threat throughout this fight. While he doesn't have a ton of power behind his striking, he's able to wear opponents down with his constant pressure. He'll be looking to make Edwards tired and eventually quit on himself, as Covington claims he's done in the past.
However, fighting Kamaru Usman twice ahead of this fight is a massive advantage for Leon Edwards. He's also been much more active and his game is completely dialed-in. Basically, he's at the peak of his prime and he'll be facing Covington after two years on the sidelines. Usman poses many of the same threats as Covington, so Edwards should be able to pick up on it and fight his well-rounded game. As long as he doesn't get tired, he should be able to retain his belt and walk away the champ.
Final Leon Edwards-Colby Covington Prediction & Pick: Leon Edwards (-162)
