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We're back and ready to bring you another betting prediction and pick for UFC 310 as we turn our attention towards this next bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 14-ranked Vicente Luque of Brazil will take on Zimbabwe's rising star Themba Gorimbo in an exciting matchup. Check out our UFC odds series for our Luque-Gorimbo prediction and pick.
Vicente Luque (22-10-1) has gone 15-6 during his UFC career since 2015. After notching four-straight wins, he's gone just 1-3 over his last four fights. Most recently, he lost via knockout to Joaquin Buckley and was slated to fight Nick Diaz in this bout, but a last-minute change prompted the new opponent. Luque stands 5'11” with a 75.5-inch reach.
Themba Gorimbo (14-4) comes in with 4-1 UFC record since 2023. He hasn't looked back since losing his debut fight and most recently beat Niko Price, marking his four-straight win and second consecutive unanimous decision. He'll step into this spot on a few week's notice as the betting favorite. Gorimbo stands 6'1″ with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Vicente Luque-Themba Gorimbo Odds
Vicente Luque: +124
Themba Gorimbo: -148
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
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Why Vicente Luque Will Win
Vicente Luque was preparing to face Nick Diaz in a favorable matchup, but he'll have to pivot to facing a younger, hungrier opponent. While Vicente Luque hasn't quite been the same since going on his winning streak, he proved he's still an elite grappler and striker with his dominant win over Rafael Dos Anjos. He's extremely conservative when fighting and doesn't take too many chances, but he's constantly searching for an opening and can end the fight in an instant if he's able to find a submission opportunity.
Vicente Luque wants Carlos Prates if he gets a win over Themba Gorimbo this weekend 👀 pic.twitter.com/4INqWf5aUy
— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) December 3, 2024
Vicente Luque will have to remain patient during this fight while matching the pace and aggression from Gorimbo. He can't afford to start slow by any means and will have to gain Gorimbo's respect from the opening round. If he falls behind in the striking department, it could become difficult for him to become competitive in this fight if he isn't able to notch the takedowns. Still, we can't sleep on the violence Luque has been capable of during his whole career.
Why Themba Gorimbo Will Win
Themba Gorimbo is supremely confident in this matchup despite having a shortened fight camp ahead of it. Since his debut loss in the UFC, he's been a man on a mission with dedication to his training camps and putting full trust in his corner to come up with a successful game plan. While he typically fights on the fly and matches the rhythm of his opponent, Gorimbo is extremely unpredictable and can catch his opponent's sleeping on a moment's notice. Expect him to be hunting for the knockout during this one.
Happy thanksgiving to all my American friends and fans.
Life is good and i am about to shock the world in few days.
It’s my time.
———#mambamentality#championmindset#iwin pic.twitter.com/xxu0s4ZF4l— Themba T L Gorimbo (@TheAnswerMMA) November 28, 2024
Themba Gorimbo fights behind an impressive 82% takedown defense rate, so it'll be very difficult for Luque to bring him down, especially if he's shooting desperately towards the end of the fight. Gorimbo is also a phenomenal athlete and will easily have the speed advantage with his hands in this one. Still, it'll be very important for him not to underestimate Luque as one of the most dangerous finishers this division has seen.
Final Vicente Luque-Themba Gorimbo Prediction & Pick
This fight will be very interesting and while we won't see Nick Diaz in action, we should have an exciting fight given Themba Gorimbo's flare for the dramatic. Ultimately, this new opponent isn't a great matchup for Vicente Luque compared to his original fight, but he's the more experienced fighter by a great margin and could certainly pull off an upset in this one.
While Vicente Luque is also the much more precise striker, there could be a great discrepancy in the speed if this fight remains on the feet. Gorimbo has the much faster boxing hands and does a great job at stuffing the takedowns, so we could see him dictating the pace of this fight.
This fight should prove to be a close one given the betting lines and I don't see either side finding a finish here. I expect Gorimbo to be the much more active striker, but he'll have to land clean on Luque to effect his forward pressure. Ultimately, I think Themba Gorimbo comes out of this bout with a very close decision win.
Final Vicente Luque-Themba Gorimbo Prediction & Pick: Themba Gorimbo (-148); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-175)
