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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 105: Emmett vs. Murphy as we take a look at this next Prelim bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. California's Victor Henry will face off against Brazil's Pedro Falcao in an exciting scrap. Check the UFC odds series for our Henry-Falcao prediction and pick.
Victor Henry (24-7) has gone 3-2-0-1 during his UFC stint since 2022. He's gone 1-1-0-1 during his last three fights with a submission loss to Charles Jourdain during his most recent appearance. He owns solid victories over Rani Yahya and Tony Gravely, so he's looking to get back in the win column as the betting favorite here. Henry stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach.
Pedro Falcao (16-4) will be making his second UFC appearance following a debut loss to Victor Hugo last year. He earned a win on Dana White's Contender series in 2021 and will be looking for the elusive first win in the UFC octagon. Falcao stands 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Victor Henry-Pedro Falcao Odds
Victory Henry: -218
Pedro Falcao: +180
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
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Why Victor Henry Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Charles Jourdain – SUB (guillotine choke, R2)
- Last 5: 2-2-0-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Victor Henry has a disappointing showing in his last fight following a solid training camp that ultimately led to a quick submission loss. Charles Jourdain was the better man that night, but that doesn't take anything away from Henry's willingness to mix it up with top-level fighters in the division.
He managed a “No Contest” result against a strong prospect like Javid Basharat, so he's no stranger to fighting tough up-and-comers within the weight class. He'll certainly have an experience advantage over Falcao.
Victor Henry is an extremely well-rounded fighter, and he doesn't typically make too many mistakes. He's very fundamental with his wrestling and extremely focused on defense when standing and striking.
He works behind a strong lead jab, and if he's able to find a home in it early, he could certainly create problems for Falcao in closing the distance. His takedown defense is also an impressive 84%, so expect him to dictate where this fight takes place.
Why Pedro Falcao Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Victor Hugo – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Although Pedro Falcao hasn't been particularly active, appearing in only two UFC events since 2021, he's been entering grappling tournaments and even fighting boxing matches on regional circuits. Falcao is all about constantly improving his game, but it'll be interesting to see if he has any rust stepping into a UFC-level fight.
He's a very slick boxer and can stand to see success if he's able to dance around the straight-up and stiff style of his opponent. He rode a five-fight winning streak prior to his last loss that included three knockouts and a submission.
Pedro Falcao will have to work against a minor reach disadvantage, and while he's the more active grappler in a three-round fight, he may have trouble finding success there against an equally strong talent in Henry.
Falcao will have to make great use of his feints and leg kicks if he wants to disrupt the timing of his opponent. Whatever he lacks in experience, he can more than make up for with his punching power if he's able to land clean.
Final Victor Henry-Pedro Falcao Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are coming into this bout following a loss and looking to prove something to the UFC matchmakers. Victor Henry has seen more action against top-level competition, and he's been able to hold his own thus far in the UFC.
Pedro Falcao certainly hasn't been as active as his opponent, but he's seen undeniable success at several organizations and is ready for this spot in the UFC.
Pedro Falcao averages just over two takedowns per fight, but Victor Henry is a capable grappler with an 84% takedown defense rate. He's also very solid with his wrestling defense, so I don't expect Falcao to be much of a threat on the ground to the betting favorite. Victor Henry is also the longer striker, landing 7.66 strikes per minute and putting a serious pace on his opponents.
For our final prediction here, we have to favor the striking output of Henry and his ability to negate the wrestling attempts. He's more well-rounded in all areas of the fight, and he has great experience controlling the pace and nerves at the UFC level. Let's roll with the betting favorite to come away with the win.
Final Victor Henry-Pedro Falcao Prediction & Pick: Victor Henry (-218)
