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Ranked light heavyweight contenders Volkan Oezdemir (20-7) and Carlos Ulberg (10-1) meet on the main card of UFC Macau with a chance to advance in the divisional title picture. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with an Oezdemir-Ulberg prediction and pick for what should be one of the most exciting fights of the day.
Oezdemir, 35, is the higher-ranked fighter as a former title challenger but will be the underdog at closing. After a rough 2-5 stretch from 2018 to 2021, Oezdemir has won three of his last four fights and is riding a two-fight win streak into the matchup. The Swedish power puncher is 1-0 in 2024, coming off a brutal knockout win over Johnny Walker at UFC Abu Dhabi.
Ulberg, 34, is just 11 fights into his MMA career after transitioning from kickboxing. The City Kickboxing product enters his first top-10 matchup on a six-fight win streak, with four of them coming by knockout. Ulberg last fought at UFC St. Louis, knocking out Alonzo Menifield in 12 seconds.
Here are the UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Macau Odds: Volkan Oezdemir-Carlos Ulberg Odds
Volkan Oezdemir: +195
Carlos Ulberg: -238
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
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Why Volkan Oezdemir Will Win
If Oezdemir pulls off the upset, it will be by knockout. Ulberg's only loss in MMA has been by knockout and Oezdemir is coming off a violent knockout of Johnny Walker. Even at 35, the power is still there for Oezdemir to potentially make a late-career run in the wide-open light heavyweight division. Entering the fight with Ulberg, he has won three of his last four and is on his first win streak since 2019.
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The name of the game will be pressure for Oezdemir, who needs to be in Ulberg's face for as long as the fight lasts. He needs to avoid recklessly blitzing the former kickboxer, but staying at range against a longer fighter as talented as Ulberg will not go well for ‘No Time.' Ulberg has a bad habit of cruising when he gets ahead and occasionally leaving his chin up in the air when he gets backed up, which is how Kennedy Nzechukwu caught him in his debut.
Why Carlos Ulberg Will Win
Opposite of Oezdemir, Ulberg needs to manage his distance in this fight to get the biggest win of his career. As perhaps the best counter-striker in the division, Ulberg will be too long, fast and athletic for Oezdemir if he keeps this fight at kickboxing range. He can still win a slugfest with Oezdemir, but that would be giving his opponent the best chance to win. Ulberg has only been knocked out once, but that was also the only time he has been hit cleanly in an MMA fight, making his chin fairly untrustworthy to this point.
The one time Ulberg has lost in his career, he was on his way to cruising to a victory in his UFC debut before he got backed into the cage and clobbered by Kennedy Nzechukwu. That certainly cannot happen again, as if given the opportunity, Oezdemir can put his lights out. Ulberg can look untouchable when he is on point, which is what he needs to be for all 15 minutes against Oezdemir.
Final Volkan Oezdemir Carlos Ulberg Prediction & Pick
Even though they are separated by just one year, it will feel as if Ulberg is 10 years younger than Oezdemir once the cage door locks. His speed and calculation as a striker have not been seen at 205 pounds in several years, which makes him the appealing contender that he has become. This is a significant step up for Ulberg, but he has continued to prove that he has the tools to be the next elite fighter in the division.
While Ulberg has knocked four of his last six opponents out in under four minutes, he was essentially bum-rushed by all of them. As a seasoned veteran, there is almost no chance Oezdemir falls into that same trap. Ulberg has power, but he is a patient striker more than anything who loves to pick apart his opponents from distance. Oezdemir might be smart to force clinch and grappling sequences but he is not skilled enough in those areas to be a true threat.
Final Oezdemir-Ulberg Prediction & Pick: Carlos Ulberg by Decision (+240), Over 1.5 Rounds (-210)
