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We're back for another betting prediction and pick for the 2025 NBA Playoffs as we head back to the Western Conference for this upcoming first-round series. The 7-seed Golden State Warriors will visit the 2-seed Houston Rockets with Golden State winning the Regular Season series 3-2. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Rockets prediction and pick.
The Golden State Warriors finished with a 48-34 record, most recently taking down the Memphis Grizzlies 121-116 during the Play-In tournament to secure their spot as the 7-seed. Having won seven of their last 10 games, they'll hope to steal Game 1 on the road against a Rockets team they've seen success against.
The Houston Rockets finished second in the West behind an impressive 52-30 season, notching 50 wins for the first time since 2018-19 and returning to the Playoffs for the first time since 2020. They'll come into this series with one of the best home court advantages in the NBA as the razor-thin betting favorites.
Here are the Warriors-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Warriors-Rockets Game 1 Odds
Golden State Warriors: +1 (-110)
Moneyline: -102
Houston Rockets: -1 (-110)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 213.5 (-110)
Under: 213.5 (-110)
How To Watch Warriors vs. Rockets NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET/ 6:30 p.m. PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Golden State Warriors have gone a lights-out 23-7 overall since acquiring Jimmy Butler via trade. During their pivotal play-in game, he was the main difference in all facets of the game with a game-high 38 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. With his dog mentality on both ends of the floor, he elevates the production of the rest of this team. Draymond Green will also be bringing the attitude during this series as he squares off against Dillon Brooks on the other end.
Meaningful basketball. pic.twitter.com/x14n4Panz9
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) April 17, 2025
Steph Curry has also been massively impactful this season as he continues to seemingly get better with each passing year. He added 37 points while hitting six threes against the Grizzlies, so expect him to have a historic run shooting the ball throughout these playoffs. While the Warriors own three wins over the Rockets this season, each of those wins have come by seven or fewer points, making this an extremely close matchup for Golden State.
Why the Rockets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Houston Rockets are out to prove that their regular season was no fluke as they hope to make a deep run into their first Playoffs series in five years. They made a statement by beating the Warriors 106-96 just four games ago and they'll have much more added rest opposite of their opponents who just finished their play-in. While the Rockets are much more inexperienced when it comes to these games, their athleticism and raw talent is enough to give any team in the league issues.
Preparation. @MemorialHermann | #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/sJ7Ka0oDxD
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) April 17, 2025
The Houston Rockets also sport the fifth best defensive rating in the NBA at 110.3, but it'll take a great deal of game planning to account for both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler being held in check. It's worth noting that last time the Rockets faced the Warriors, they held Curry to just three points on a 1-10 shooting night from the field. If they can replicate that same plan with Jalen Green contributing in the scoring, they should be able to take this Game 1 at home.
Final Warriors-Rockets Prediction & Pick
This series has been back and forth all season, but the most recent result between these teams was the most telling as the Rockets managed to keep Steph Curry a non-factor during the meeting. They'll have a ton of confidence opening this series at home where they've gone 29-12 on the season. It'll be very interesting to see if Amen Thompson is matched up on Curry once again.
While the Warriors are certainly the favorites to walk out of this series as winners, I expect them to face some adversity early due to the road trip and extra game during the play-in. The Rockets will be rested and ready to open this series with a bang, so I expect an extremely high energy game from them, particularly in drawing fouls and securing rebounds.
Without Jabari Smith Jr. on the floor, I don't expect the Rockets to find sustained success throughout this series. However, with a short spread at home, we can count on them to post a high total in this one while displaying their top five defense. Let's roll with the Rockets to take Game 1 outright.
Final Warriors-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets ML (-116)
