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Argentina looks to redeem itself as they face off with Mexico in a pivotal group-stage matchup with plenty on the line. It's time to continue our World Cup odds series with an Argentina-Mexico prediction and pick.
Argentina fell 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their opener, putting them in a must-win situation. Initially, things looked fantastic as Lionel Messi converted on a penalty kick opportunity in the 10th minute by rolling the ball into the top-left corner after making the goalkeeper miss. But Argentina could not score anymore and ultimately failed to secure any points.
Argentina dominated the offensive categories, winning shots by a 15-3 margin and shots on target 6-2. However, they allowed goals on the only two opportunities, which cost them the match. Argentina successfully converted 85 percent of its passes while retaining possession for 69 percent of the game. However, they only managed a 41 percent tackle success rate. The Argentinians had nine corner-kick chances and could not convert on any of them. Unfortunately, they also had 10 offsides calls. Argentina must fix these issues fast to prevent itself from facing elimination.
Mexico played to a scoreless draw with Poland. Significantly, they played well but could not capitalize on its opportunities. Mexico had 11 shots with six shots on target. Additionally, they had a passing success rate of 84 percent with 61 percent possession time. Mexico also converted on 56 percent of its tackle chances. Likewise, it helped lead to six corner-kick opportunities. Mexico could not score and had three offsides calls and two yellow cards. Significantly, Hector Moreno and Jorge Sanchez committed these penalties.
Here are the Argentina-Mexico World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Argentina-Mexico Odds
Argentina: -185
Mexico: +550
Draw: +300
Over 2.5 Goals: -102
Under 2.5 Goals: -118
Why Argentina Will Beat Mexico
Argentina has defeated Mexico in all three of their matches in World Cup history. Amazingly, Mexico has not beaten Argentina since the 2004 Copa America.
Messi played well with a goal and three shots on target with 40 passes. Also, the midfielders did their job. Angel DiMaria had one shot on goal with 34 passes. Additionally, Rodrigo De Paul added a shot on goal with 83 passes. Leandro Paredes had 60 passes.
The defense could have done more to help. However, there were some key pieces. Nicolas Otamenai had three clears and two interceptions. Meanwhile, Nahuel Molina added a clear and an interception. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez did not make a single save and must play better to give Argentina a chance to get out of the group stage.
There are lingering questions about Argentina. First, can anyone else on the squad help out to relieve the pressure off Messi? Can the defense holds its ground and prevent Mexico from attacking relentlessly?
Argentina will defeat Mexico if Messi can establish some offense and his teammates come out strong to help. Moreover, they cannot afford to make sloppy mistakes on defense, and Martinez must make plays in the net.
Why Mexico Will Beat Argentina
Mexico is a heavy underdog. However, if they can replicate the performance they had in the opener, they may have a chance to shock Argentina and send them home early.
Hirving Lozano played well with one shot on target with 23 passes. Additionally, Alexis Vega had three shots, but none hit their target. Midfielder Luis Chavez had 47 successful passes, while Edson Alvarez added 59 passes. But Mexico needs this forward and midfield group to produce more of an attack. Unfortunately, their style requires a lot of passing, but no one knows how to convert on a chance.
The defense is the backbone of this Mexican team. Ultimately, they must execute again to have a chance. Moreno had two clears. Meanwhile, Jesus Gallardo had four tackles with six clears. Cesar Montes added four clears for the defense. Significantly, goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa had two saves.
There are some questions Mexico must answer. First, can they convert on any of their chances to score? Mexico had six corner-kick opportunities in the opener, and all went awry. Second, can they handle the Argentinian pressure they will face, and will their defensive brigade hold on?
Mexico will beat Argentina if they can strike early and engage on the offensive. Likewise, they just stop Messi and force someone else to beat them to have a chance.
Final Argentina-Mexico Prediction & Pick
Mexico played solid in their opener but could not score. Ultimately, it could hurt them in the end. Yes, the defense does win championships, but you also must know how to score. Can we trust Mexico to score? Ultimately, the answer so far is no. Expect Argentina to bounce back from its opening loss and get its first win of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Final Argentina-Mexico Prediction & Pick: Argentina: -185
