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The 2022 World Cup is now down to the final eight teams. On Friday, December 9, at 2:00 pm ET, the Netherlands, the winners of Group A who sent the USMNT back to America after a 3-1 victory, will take on Argentina, the winners of Group C, who held on to beat a scrappy Australia side 2-1 in the Round of 16. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Netherlands-Argentina prediction and pick!
The Netherlands won their Round of 16 match by tactically outmaneuvering the U.S. and exploiting their weaknesses. And they didn’t even need a goal from their Group Stage superstar, Cody Gakpo. As for Argentina, Lionel Messi scored a goal in his 1,000th match for his country, and Julian Alvarez added a second before La Albiceleste weathered a late rally by the Socceroos.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why the Netherlands could win, how Argentina could win, and then make our picks for this quarterfinals showdown.
Here are the Netherlands vs. Argentina World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Netherlands-Argentina Odds
Netherlands: +128
Argentina: -156
Over 2.5 Goals: +144
Under 2.5 Goals: -178
Why the Netherlands Will Beat Argentina
The Netherlands beat the U.S. because manager Louis van Gaal thoroughly out-coached USMNT headman Gregg Berhalter. By sitting back, absorbing pressure, and attacking down the flanks, the Dutch exploited the USMNT’s weaknesses of pushing their full-backs forward and not having a striker who is a legitimate goal threat.
Full-backs Denzel Dumfries and Daley Blind were the Men of the Match, but the former Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester United manager was the true star of this victory.
Against Argentina, Van Gaal will tweak his strategy to some extent, but don’t be surprised to see him take a similar tact against Argentina and company. The Dutch will likely look to let Argentina come forward, funneling possession to the outside and away from Messi.
When the Oranje breaks on the counter, they will be more direct vs. Argentina than they were against the U.S. Instead of exploiting the full-backs this time around, it will be the always-shaky Nicolas Otamendi and still-recovering-from-an-injury Cristian Romero at center-back who will be in Cody Gakpo and Van Gaal’s sights.
And that’s how the Netherlands win this game. Center-back Virgil van Dijk (on Lionel Messi) and the Dutch defense defend like crazy, 6-foot-8 goalkeeper Andries Noppert makes a few big saves, and when it’s time, Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Dumfries, and Blind attack. If they can catch Otamendi, Romero, and Aston Villa keeper Emi Martinez off guard — like Australia did late in the last match — the Dutch have the talent to hold on to a lead and send Messi home early.
Why Argentina Will Beat the Netherlands
Argentina wins this game against the Netherlands if Lionel Messi keeps getting help from the younger generation of Argentina stars.
Messi debuted at the FIFA World Cup in 2006 as a fresh-faced 18-year-old and has played in every tournament since. And every time — starting with the older Argentine players he played with to his own generation’s stars — the team has let him down.
Finally, at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, there is a generation playing for Argentina who is stepping up on the big stage and giving Messi a hand.
The GOAT is still the driving force on this squad. However, players like 24-year-old Manchester City striker Julian Alvarez (two goals), 23-year-old Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Alexis Mac Allister (one goal), and 21-year-old Benfica midfielder Enzo Fernandez (one goal, one assist), are stepping up, and lending a hand.
As we’ve seen in the past, Messi scoring a goal doesn’t guarantee a victory for Argentina. However, if you see a young player in sky blue and white put a ball in the back of the net vs. the Netherlands, there’s a good chance Argentina is moving on.
Final Netherlands-Argentina Prediction & Pick
It took until he was 35, but Argentina finally found the right team to put around Lionel Messi. And while Louis van Gaal and Virgil van Dijk will do all they can tactically to take the Paris Saint-Germian star out of the game, Messi, with young, talented help, will be too much for the Dutch to handle.
This match should be a close contest and expect both teams to find the back of the net at least once. When it comes down to it, though, one team has Messi on it, and the other doesn’t, and that will ultimately make the difference in this 2-1 Argentina win.
Final Netherlands-Argentina Prediction & Pick: Argentina (-150); Over 2.5 goals (+148)
