In a battle between two blue bloods of the Big Ten Conference, the Michigan State Spartans take on the Wisconsin Badgers on Friday afternoon for a chance to advance to the semifinals of the conference tournament. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Michigan State-Wisconsin prediction and pick. Who is ready for some Friday college basketball action?
The Badgers enter Friday's matchup with a healthy 24-6 record on the season and have shown flashes of being one of the top teams in all of basketball. Wisconsin concluded the 2021-2022 regular season by defeating the last five of their six opponents, catapulting them into a tie with Illinois for the top spot, and sharing the regular-season crown with the Fighting Illini heading into postseason play.
Michigan State entered the Big Ten tournament with as much skilled potential as any other squad, but their inconsistency reared its ugly head at times and prevented the Spartans from playing fundamentally sound basketball. Prior to their back-to-back wins against Maryland in the regular-season finale and in the first round of the conference tournament, the up and down Spartans fell victim to losing seven contests in a nine-game stretch. Upon further review, it is a miracle MSU has the record that they do, as early-season success benefitted them greatly in the fact that they were a 21-win team.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Michigan State-Wisconsin odds:
Big Ten Odds: Michigan State-Wisconsin Odds
Michigan State: +3.5 (-114)
Wisconsin: -3.5 (-106)
Over: 136.5 (-110)
Under: 136.5 (-110)
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Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
Outside of the brutal injury that occurred to Wisconsin star Johnny Davis might not be his full self when these two powerhouses go to war, the Spartans generally matchup well against the Badgers and even split the season series against the Big Ten regular-season champs in Madison, reeling off the 86-74 road victory. One of the biggest issues that MSU has faced has been their troubling amount of turnovers per matchup, but do not fear: the Badgers find it hard to ensure havoc and generate takeaways, as Wisconsin ranks 258th in the nation in defensive turnover rate.
Expect the Michigan State offense to stick to their game plan early by trying to instill a high-tempo-oriented attack, similar to what they were able to accomplish in their lone victory over the Badgers back on January 21st. If Michigan State can limit the giveaways and get impact playmakers such as Gabe Brown and Malik Hall going early, the Spartans have a great chance to cover and move on to the semi-final round.
Why Wisconsin Could Cover the Spread
The talented Badgers squad will be looking to avenge a shocking loss in their last matchup against the lowly Cornhuskers, which saw their leading scorer in Johnny Davis succumb to injury after being flagrantly fouled early in the second half. Wisconsin ended up faltering to Nebraska by a score of 74-73, as they shot a very pedestrian 21% from three. An interesting stat to take note of if Wisconsin plans on covering the spread? The pesky Badgers are rated the seventh-best squad in KenPom's Luck metric, as their clutch and timely shots provide the extra kick they need to put away their foes for good.
The most obvious factor in this matchup will be the availability and effectiveness of Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis, who should provide viewers at home and the arena a general idea of how far he's coming along since injuring a part of his lower body. If Davis can be close to full form, the Badgers shouldn't have much of a problem with a Spartans bunch that can't seem to figure out their true identity.
Final Michigan State-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
On paper, it is hard to know exactly what Spartans team will show up on Friday in Indianapolis, but there is no way Wisconsin's best player on the floor Johnny Davis will fully be himself when the ball is tipped. MSU matches up well against the Badgers and would be a wise pick at +3.5.
Final Michigan State-Wisconsin Pick: Michigan State +3.5 (-114)
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