The Buffalo Bills narrowly defeated Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins in the 2023 NFL Wild Card Round. Looking ahead to the Divisional Round, the Cincinnati Bengals will provide more of a challenge. The Bills, of course, have won eight games in a row, and they aim to make it nine against Cincy. With that laid out, let's look at some of the issues the Bills have when they face the Bengals in the Divisional Round.
The interesting thing here is that the Bengals do not seem intimidated by the Bills in this matchup. In their short-lived Week 17 game, Cincinnati actually scored a touchdown after receiving the ball against Buffalo. That indicates confidence in their ability to move the ball against the Bills defense, which has shown vulnerabilities in deep coverage.
Additionally, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen's tendency for turnovers could prove detrimental in the upcoming Divisional Round game. It is therefore crucial for Allen to minimize turnovers if the Bills hope to defeat the Bengals' strong defense and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The impact of turnovers will be crucial in determining the winner.
That said, here are some of the issues the Bills will have when they face the Bengals.
Burrow vs. Allen.
With the game on the line, who are you taking? 👀 @NewEraCap
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4. Bills Special Teams
Despite ranking 31st in punt return average, Miami had a successful 50-yard return that resulted in a field goal in the second quarter against Buffalo. The play was hindered by Siran Neal falling down, and Taiwan Jones and Terrel Bernard getting blocked. The field goal was followed by an out-of-bounds kickoff that also resulted in a field goal. Bills punter Sam Martin had a strong performance with a 55-yard net punt that changed the field in favor of the Bills while they were trailing 24-20. He also had two consecutive punts with a net of 45.
In all, the Bills special teams can be a mixed bag. If they allow the Bengals to have a long return, that'll give Joe Burrow too many good opportunities to punish the Bills secondary. And speaking of that secondary…
3. Bills Secondary
CB Dane Jackson's availability would be beneficial for the Buffalo defense as the Bengals have a deep roster of talented offensive playmakers. That includes the NFL's top trio of receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Of course, they also have tight end Hayden Hurst, who was heating up last week.
The bottom line is that the secondary must be prepared for the challenge. Along with Jackson, CB Kaiir Elam may also have an important role to play. Burrow may also try to avoid defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. However, the entire Buffalo defensive backfield will need to perform well to contend with the Bengals offense.
It also goes without saying that the Buffalo pass rush will also play a significant role in this matchup. However, the pass rush has been more reliable and consistent than their secondary.
2. Bills Ground Defense
During the Wild Card Round, the Bills run defense improved significantly from their last game against the Miami Dolphins on December 17th. They allowed only 42 rushing yards. That's the second-lowest total in playoff history for the Bills. The only lower total was 33 yards by the Dolphins in the 1993 AFC Championship Game. The Bills won that one, 29-10. The Dolphins only had 11 rushing attempts in that game. In last Sunday's game, the Bills held the Dolphins to 2.1 yards per carry on 20 attempts. Meanwhile, back in December, Miami ran for 188 yards on 25 carries.
Looking ahead, though, the Bills run defense will face a more challenging task this Sunday against the Bengals. Of course, that's aside from paying close attention to Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow's passing game.
Take note that Cincinnati's run game has been inconsistent this season, ranking 29th in total yards. That's despite having Joe Mixon, a three-time 1,000-yard rusher. Mixon was, in fact, limited in the past two weeks by the Baltimore Ravens' strong run defense. Still, recall that three weeks ago, he had a productive game against the tough New England defense. In that outing, he had 16 carries for 65 yards in the Bengals' win.
If the Bills aren't careful here, Mixon could run rings around the Buffalo ground defense, too.
1. Josh Allen's turnovers
The Bills managed to advance past the Wild-Card Round despite committing multiple turnovers. To be specific, star QB Josh Allen threw two interceptions and had three fumbles. This will be a crucial factor in their upcoming game against the Bengals. It goes without saying that Allen & Co. will need to address this problem.
We all anticipate this Allen x Burrow clash to be quite exciting, but a few Allen turnovers can surely turn it into a lopsided affair. Recall that Allen's recent mistakes have led to doubts about the Bills' chances of winning. If he coughs the ball up more than twice here, we're not confident the Bills can pull through.
Remember as well that Allen will be facing a Bengals defense that has a strong record in terms of turnover differential. Yes, Allen was able to rally and lead the Bills to victory in their last game. However, these aren't the Dolphins they're facing. These Bengals are on fire. They're hungry. They're ready to pounce.
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