The Portland Blazers had a promising start to the season. They went 5-1 in October. Since then, however, they've been on a net downward trajectory. The Blazers are currently sitting in 12th place in the Western Conference with a 23-25 win-loss record. They've also lost six of their last 10 games. For sure, they have some holes to plug on their roster, especially since Damian Lillard's championship timeline is closing. Here we will look at the dream scenario that the Blazers are hoping for as we close in on the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
The Blazers are close to the luxury tax threshold and are unlikely to take on additional salary in trades. Keep in mind that right now, they currently sit outside the play-in. They have two trade exceptions worth $6.5 million and $3.3 million that may go unused due to their financial situation. Additionally, the Blazers owe a first-round pick to the Chicago Bulls that is protected through 2028. That certainly complicates any potential trades involving a first-round pick. However, if the Blazers are play-in bound, trading future first-round picks may be less complicated once the pick is conveyed. That is likely to happen this year.
Due to these factors, Portland may be more inclined to make significant changes during the offseason. If the Blazers' first-round pick conveys to the Bulls this year, they will have all their own firsts going forward. That could put them in a position to trade for a high-profile player if they're willing to offer multiple picks. However, this could also put the Blazers deep into the luxury tax next year. This is especially if they choose to re-sign Jerami Grant.
As for the upcoming trade deadline, Portland is limited in terms of assets they can deal. Remember that they don't have any first-round picks until 2025. This means that they may look to trade players such as Josh Hart, Justise Winslow, or Keon Johnson. Nassir Little could also be a trade option. However, his recent extension includes a poison pill provision. That applies when a player who signed a rookie scale extension is traded before the extension takes effect. This makes it less attractive for other teams to trade for Little. If a trade does occur, Hart is likely the player to be dealt. He has one more year left on his contract, and his value could open up $12.9 million for Portland in future contracts.
Now let's look at the Blazers' dream scenario for the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
Blazers deal Hart, Johnson, or Little for a difference-maker
Led by Damian Lillard, the Blazers, led are in a position where they should consider making moves to improve their chances of returning to playoff contention. However, it is uncertain what those moves should look like. Again, the team owes a protected first-round pick to the Bulls through 2028. That really makes it difficult to guarantee a pick without adjusting the terms of this obligation.
Tonight was the 4th 60+ point game of Damian Lillard's career. Only four other players in NBA History have 4 or more.
Wilt Chamberlain has 32.
"We ain't catching Wilt." pic.twitter.com/KMNXb79bOZ
— NBA (@NBA) January 26, 2023
One guy to think about is Anfernee Simons. He is a valuable player, but trading him would require a significant acquisition in return. Additionally, Shaedon Sharpe has high potential. However, we feel the team won't trade him except in a blockbuster deal.
Not making any moves could be acceptable if the plan is to re-sign Grant and Hart in free agency. However, the Blazers could justify this if they make the playoffs. Right now, that doesn't seem likely. That would extinguish their first-round obligation to Chicago and allow for more trade options during the offseason. Currently, the Blazers seem at risk of remaining outside the play-in tournament. And without a first-round pick to improve their playoff chances, they should explore the potential of trading non-core players in exchange for future first-round picks.
As for this season's deadline, if the Blazers still want to push for a postseason spot, that will require some creative wheeling and dealing. Again, they should do all they can if they really value the timeline aligning with Damian Lillard's prime. To justify the high cost of a trade, they could target a difference-maker like Toronto's OG Anunoby or even Orlando's Mo Bamba. They could fill Portland's long-term need for a two-way forward or a legitimate replacement for Drew Eubanks. If this kind of deal happens, that would be the dream scenario for the Blazers.
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