The Portland Trail Blazers are in year-one of a rebuild after trading Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks over the summer.
As the team is in asset-acquisition mode after a complete teardown, it may seem strange for the Blazers to need to deal further players away. But there is one player who must be traded before February's trade deadline.
Possible, but doubtful
As much as Jerami Grant and his 5 year/$160 million contract make sense to be dealt, Grant will likely stick around with the Blazers for a couple more years. At that much money, other teams may balk at committing to Grant for the long-term. Also, Portland has to be somebody to be above the salary floor, and there isn't much talented depth behind Grant at the power forward spot.
The Blazers likely would have considered the same approach with Robert Williams III before he was lost for the season with a torn knee ligament. A defensive specialist that can start or come off the bench and has ample playoff experience has a lot of value for a contender. It's possible that a team sniffs around Williams at the deadline, but considering he can't play until next season, his value has taken a significant hit.
Likely on the move
So, the Blazers should turn to reigning NBA 6th Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon as their most likely candidate to be moved before the trade deadline. Yes, the Blazers are desperately missing Brogdon's shot-making and steady leadership while he, Scoot Henderson, and Anfernee Simons all miss time with injury. But those attributes will be less in-demand for the team once the other two guards return from injury with the next few weeks.
Between Brogdon, Henderson, Simons, and rising star Shaedon Sharpe, there is a huge logjam in the backcourt. Simons is the team's best offensive player today. Henderson and Sharpe are the future. The Blazers need to make a choice.
Brogdon, assuming he fully recovers from the strained hamstring that has kept him out of action for the last several games, should have significant interest around the NBA. Multiple contenders find themselves in need of a starting guard, or a backup that can play heavy minutes at either the one or the two. Especially one that has the playoff experience that Brogdon has. Look for teams to make offers to the Balzers for Brogdon in February.
Brogdon is averaging 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game for the Blazers this season. He's done an admirable job filling in when injuries struck the Blazers backcourt (before succumbing to injury himself).
Why Portland should move Brogdon
Brogdon is a very talented player, and while he's older than most of the baby Blazers, he's hardly washed-up at 30. But for Portland, it's all about consolidating assets. The team needs to do their best to follow the Oklahoma City Thunder model of tanking – start with a talented guard, tank while playing them huge minutes while doing your best to maintain positive culture, stockpile as many picks as possible, and draft well.
While they could perhaps get a young, talented player for Brogdon, it's more likely that they're looking at receiving a first-round pick and taking on matching salary. If the Blazers can get somebody of reasonable use for that matching salary, that should be considered a win.
The 2023-24 NBA Trade Deadline is February 8, 2024.
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