The Toronto Blue Jays appear to be in grave danger of losing one of their best players, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., after the 2025 season. Guerrero and the Blue Jays were unable to come to terms on a new contract on Tuesday night, the star first baseman's deadline to reach a new deal, and considering how contract extension talks have stalled between the two parties, it does not seem as though the relationship between them is smooth enough to facilitate a return when the 25-year-old reaches free agency.

Over the past few years, the Blue Jays have been desperately looking for a way to add more talent to the roster- going as far as to explore giving Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto record-setting deals. In the process of doing so, they have neglected to keep their house in order- with Guerrero being on the receiving end of some suboptimal treatment from the front office.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic summed up the Blue Jays' failure on the Guerrero front by explaining how many chances Toronto had to lock up their homegrown star over the past few years, yet coming up short.

“The Jays planned to manipulate Guerrero’s service time at the outset of his career, took him to a salary arbitration hearing in 2024, and over the years made him a series of extension offers he deemed insufficient. Those offers, according to a source briefed on Guerrero’s history with the club, failed to acknowledge shifting dynamics in the market. By reacting more promptly to those dynamics, the Jays likely could have locked up Guerrero years ago for much less than he sought in recent weeks,” Rosenthal wrote.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Blue Jays stint may be coming to an end

Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) walks back to the dugout before the start of a game against the Miami Marlins at Rogers Centre.
Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

It was understandable for the Blue Jays to be a bit hesitant when it came to signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term contract. After all, Guerrero's production declined in 2022 and fell even further off in 2023. There were also concerns regarding his frame and whether that would be conducive to him sustaining a high level of production.

But with Guerrero still being young (he won't be turning 26 until March 16), it was always a good bet for the Blue Jays to expect him to bounce back. In 2024, that's exactly what he did, as he put up 5.5 WAR across 159 games (per Fangraphs). This appears to be sustainable moving forward, although it doesn't seem like it would be the Blue Jays that will benefit from Guerrero's production following the 2025 campaign.