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One of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world returns to the ring when Shakur Stevenson (23-0) defends his belt against William Zepeda (33-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Shakur Stevenson-William Zepeda prediction and pick.
Stevenson, 28, has been one of the most dominant, but controversial, champions since he claimed the WBO featherweight title in 2019. Since moving up to lightweight in 2023, it has been more of the same, with Stevenson cruising to lopsided victories but ridiculed for his perceived lack of aggression. After leaving TopRank and joining forces with Turki Alalshikh, Stevenson is coming off a ninth-round TKO win over Josh Padley in his second defense of the WBC lightweight title.
Zepeda, 29, is receiving his first world title opportunity after nearly a decade of being one of the most exciting boxers in the lightweight division. With 27 knockouts in 33 professional victories, Zepeda presents the toughest stylistic challenge for Stevenson to date. Zepeda is coming off consecutive wins over Tevin Farmer, one by split decision and the most recent by majority decision.
Here are the Shakur Stevenson-William Zepeda odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Shakur Stevenson-William Zepeda Odds
Shakur Stevenson: -1200
William Zepeda: +680
Over 11.5 Rounds: -290
Under 11.5 Rounds: +195
How to Watch Shakur Stevenson vs. William Zepeda
Time: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk time (estimated): 8:40 p.m. ET / 5:40 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN
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Why Shakur Stevenson Will Win
Stevenson is saying that he will be more aggressive in this fight, but he will need to remain true to form to stay ahead of Zepeda. While Stevenson rightly assessed that Zepeda is great at cutting off the cage, exchanging in the pocket with him would be a horrible idea. Zepeda has the power to knock out any lightweight in the world, but there is no active boxer with better defense than Stevenson.
Fans might not like it, but Stevenson is harder to hit than a fly. Since moving up to lightweight, Stevenson has yet to absorb more than 74 punches in a single fight. Artem Harutyunyan touched him the most, but he did so while landing just 17.5 percent of his total strikes. Stevenson has faced aggressive power punchers like Zepeda before, and none have been able to even leave a mark on his face.
While Zepeda is coming off consecutive 12-round decision wins over Farmer, he has been a knockout artist his entire career. His power has taken him to the top of the division, leading to an 82 percent knockout rate. However, with all but one of his stoppages coming within six rounds, Zepeda has hardly been forced to fight into the later rounds. Stevenson will need to be cautious early, as he always is, but he should be the much better boxer in the second half of the fight.
Why William Zepeda Will Win
Many knockout artists have tried to get into Stevenson's face before, but none were as good at their craft as Zepeda. Even Stevenson acknowledged the challenge he has in front of him, saying he wants to be more aggressive in the fight to match Zepeda's intensity.
Fans want to see Stevenson face IBF champion Gervonta Davis, but Zepeda might be the toughest stylistic matchup for him. Unlike Davis, Zepeda will get after Stevenson from the gun and force the champion to work from bell to bell. Breaking down Stevenson's guard is much easier said than done, but Zepeda has hurt every opponent he has faced thus far, even if he was unable to finish them.
Zepeda received heavy criticism after going blow-for-blow with an aging Farmer for 24 rounds. The criticism intensified after Farmer suffered a brutal first-round knockout loss to Floyd Schofield in his ensuing bout. But while Farmer was able to threaten an aggressive Zepeda with his power, that threat will not be the same from Stevenson. Despite his dominance, Stevenson has just three stoppage victories in his last nine fights.
Final Shakur Stevenson-William Zepeda Prediction & Pick
Zepeda will get after Stevenson and attempt to make him fight out of positions he has never been in before. Unfortunately for him, despite being the most credentialed opponent of Stevenson's to date, nothing suggests he will not become another victim of the champion's stifling defense. Stevenson has held a title for half a decade but is still criminally underrated due to his lackluster highlight reel.
Zepeda is aggressive, but he can be sloppy when he blitzes, making it easy for an elite counter-puncher like Stevenson to see coming. Much like Floyd Mayweather, Stevenson visibly frustrates his opponents with his ability to anticipate everything and seemingly improve the more punches fly in his direction. The champion will force Zepeda to hesitate and think more than he ever has before, which is not how he will pull off the upset.
Stevenson has slightly more power than fans give him credit for, but it is unlikely that he will hurt Zepeda. The Mexican leaves himself open for counters, which is how Farmer hurt him, but Stevenson's power is a few notches below. He has fast hands, but Stevenson's power was unimpressive at featherweight, and even less noticeable at lightweight. Given Stevenson's defensive prowess but lack of fight-ending power, it is unlikely that either fighter hits the canvas before the American likely retains his title.
Final Shakur Stevenson-William Zepeda Prediction & Pick: Under 0.5 knockdowns (-180)
