The Atlanta Braves are in unfamiliar territory as the second half of August begins. On Aug. 16 last year, the Braves were ahead by 12 games in the National League East and had the best record in baseball by 4 1/2 games. 365 days later, Atlanta is seven games back of first place in the division and clings to a two-game lead for the final Wild Card berth in the NL.
Having spent virtually the entire season without ace Spencer Strider and the last 12 weeks without Ronald Acuna Jr., it's easy to see how the Braves regressed. Expectations remain high in Atlanta though and there is enough talent on the roster to overcome those losses. After all, the Braves did win the 2021 World Series without Acuna.
The Braves aren’t a team that makes excuses and won't let a few key injuries derail a season in their championship window. The product on the field hasn’t exactly been championship caliber though and Atlanta is running out of time to show they're a legitimate title contender this year.
That can happen if everything clicks over the next six weeks and the Braves carry confidence into the postseason. They seemed to add some in San Francisco this week, taking three of four from a Giants team chasing them in the standings. Before that, Atlanta lost seven of eight, including consecutive shutout losses for the first time since April 2021. The Braves were shut out twice during the entire 2023 season.
Most of it comes down to Atlanta's star bats performing as expected. If the lineup is producing, the Braves are a scary team. Atlanta can bring other factors and decisions into the mix to better their chances at a deep playoff run.
Braves searching for more consistency in rotation
The Braves starting rotation took a hit two weeks into the season when the team announced Strider would be out for the year to recover from elbow surgery. Surprisingly, Atlanta's starters threw exceptionally well without Strider at the top, thanks largely to the resurgence of Chris Sale and a breakout first half from Reynaldo Lopez.
While Sale remains among the favorites for the NL Cy Young Award, Lopez is sidelined with forearm inflammation. The Braves anticipate he will rejoin the rotation next week, but there may be reservations regarding the 30-year-old. He's logged over 100 innings this year for only the third time in his MLB career and the first time since 2019. His rehab start on Tuesday didn’t impress either as Lopez surrendered three runs on six hits and a walk across four innings.
Atlanta's rotation has the fourth-best ERA in the majors this season but has taken a significant step back recently. Braves starters have a 5.65 ERA in August, worse than the 5.16 ERA they have carried since the All-Star break and their 4.49 ERA since July.
Max Fried hasn’t looked himself since returning from the injured list on Aug. 4. He allowed 12 earned runs and walked 11 batters in his last three starts, failing to earn the win in any of them.
Charlie Morton, who's made at least 30 starts for the Braves in each of the last three seasons, has one win and a 5.65 ERA across his last seven starts. He did deliver a quality start against the Giants Tuesday that included his 2,000th career strikeout, but Morton is at risk of missing out on Atlanta's playoff rotation.
Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has been a pleasant and much-needed surprise and is pitching like an All-Star. The 24-year-old allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last six starts with an astounding 45 to 3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
All told, the Braves rotation has the makings of a top-end group but they haven’t collectively put it together over the last six weeks. As September approaches, Atlanta will be hard-pressed to find solutions for its struggling starters.
Speed does not kill in Atlanta
Speed has usually been an underrated part of baseball. MLB recognized that games lacked action on the bases and implemented new rules to entice players to steal more bases. Although he is undoubtedly a top player in the league, it's hard to argue against the changes helping Ronald Acuna Jr. capture the 2023 NL MVP Award after he recorded the first individual season with 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases.
The Braves were going to miss Acuna's baserunning abilities after he went down with another torn ACL in May, but Atlanta's base stealing is essentially nonexistent without him. Only the Giants have fewer steals this year than the Braves 50, with Acuna accounting for 16.
Non-Acuna Braves swiped 59 bags last season, so this isn’t exactly a new trend. Atlanta's offense is also built on handing the baton to the next guy and shouldn’t have to rely on a player stealing to get into scoring position. That doesn’t mean they should ignore the opportunities completely.
In their defense, the Braves have a solid trio of base stealers in Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. They've all missed significant time this year due to injury, hence why Atlanta's stealing numbers are way down. The good news is Harris returned to the lineup Wednesday and Albies is expected back in early September.
The Braves could add even more speed in the final month of the season when rosters expand. Nacho Alvarez Jr. is a name to watch in that department. The 21-year-old infield prospect has 22 steals in the minors this year and had a brief stint with Atlanta in July, though he struggled at the plate going 3-for-30.
Upcoming stretch could define season
The Braves have to put their recent mishaps in the past and narrow their focus on a crucial two-week stretch coming up. Following a weekend series against the lowly Los Angeles Angels, the Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game set. The final week of August sees Atlanta travel to Minnesota to face a Twins team with the second-best record in the AL since June before meeting Philly for the final time in the regular season in a four-game series.
The Phillies' lead over the Braves in the NL East can’t be made up in a single series, but if Atlanta takes five of its remaining seven games over its divisional foe, September becomes a lot more interesting. The Braves open September with consecutive series against last-place teams and are home for 17 of their final 25 games. The Phillies meanwhile have only 10 home games after August.
As frustrating as the 2024 season has been at times for the Braves, there is still hope for playoff success. If any team can overcome the injuries they've been dealt and remain in contention for a World Series title, it's Atlanta. They're not among the favorites, but the eyes of the baseball world should peer toward the Braves if they start to heat up over the next few weeks.
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