Noche UFC 306 has reached a fever pitch and we’re set to bring you all the betting predictions and picks on this Mexican Independence Day of fights. This next Main Card bout takes place in the Featherweight (145) Division and features a rematch of a cancelled bout as No. 3-ranked Brian Ortega takes on No. 13-ranked Diego Lopes. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ortega-Lopes prediction and pick.
Brian Ortega (16-3) has gone 8-3-0-1 during his UFC career as a former title challenger. After falling to Alexander Volkanovski in his recent title shot, Ortega overcame injury prior to a rematch with Yair Rodriguez. He excelled with a submission finish and will now look to make good on his promise to face Lopes after pulling out of their last scheduled meeting. Ortega stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Diego Lopes (24-6) has gone 3-1 during his UFC stint since 2023. A full-time coach and trainer for fellow fighters like Alexa Grasso, he’s now won his last three consecutive fights in the first round. While it’s a fast rise, Lopes could ensure himself a title shot if he’s able to take down a legend of the division. Lopes stands 5’11” with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC 306 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC 306 Odds: Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Odds
Brian Ortega: +150
Diego Lopes: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Brian Ortega Will Win
Brian Ortega’s last win over Yair Rodriguez could have been the most important of his career as he cemented himself into title position while overcoming injury in the process. It’s been a long road to get to this point and while he was scheduled to fight Lopes at UFC 303, the timing clearly wasn’t right for Ortega as he eventually pulled out of the bout. At the time, he was stepping in on very short notice after being on vacation. Now, however, he’ll look to return with a full fight camp behind him. Ortega wouldn’t pull out of a fight unless he knew he wasn’t 100%, so we should be getting the best version of him come Saturday night.
Brian Ortega is arguably the best jiu jitsu practitioner in the UFC today and despite Diego Lopes’ fast rise through the division, Brian Ortega has been doing this for much longer and isn’t deterred by the challenge in Lopes’ grappling. While we’ve seen many grappling matchups cancel-out and take place on the feet, we can guarantee that this fight will hit the mat at some point. Either way, Brian Ortega is the much better boxer and it’s interesting to see him as the bigger betting underdog given the longer camp and his advantage in the striking department. It’ll be interesting to see where Ortega chooses to keep this fight as he looks for his openings in the striking range.
Why Diego Lopes Will Win
Diego Lopes must have been furious to have to wait for this opportunity, but he’s made the most of seizing whatever comes his was and this fight will be no different. Lopes has a chance to leapfrog the division and place himself right in the midst of title talks if he can win big on Mexican Independence Day. The entire crowd will be pulling for him and his betting odds have risen since the first meeting, hiking up from -140 to now -185. Clearly, Ortega’s withdrawal is playing into these odds and we can see Lopes is billed as the hungrier, more ready opponent during this matchup.
While Diego Lopes may be giving up some mat time to a veteran like Ortega, he’s spent far more time training others in jiu jitsu and has an aura of fearlessness when chasing the submissions. It’s unlikely that Lopes will hesitate to test his own jiu jitsu against someone like Brian Ortega, so don’t be surprised if he shoots for the takedown early and attacks his chain submissions in the first round. Aside from the striking, Diego Lopes pushing a monster pace through three rounds and we should see him put Ortega’s cardio to the test during this one.
Final Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick
This fight has been circled for many fight fans and we’ll finally get a second crack at seeing this one come to fruition. Both men are two of the best when it comes to Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and everyone is anxiously waiting to see how this one plays out on the ground.
It’s interesting to see the betting odds swing even farther in favor of Lopes, but it’s a testament to his readiness and the shaky nature behind Ortega’s pull out of the last meeting.
We’ll keep our original prediction and roll with Diego Lopes to win this fight. While Brian Ortega may have the better skills and resume on paper, this seems like Diego Lopes’ moment to truly break into a title shot and he’ll be at the top of his game after a training camp with the reigning champion in Alexa Grasso.
Final Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick: Diego Lopes (-180)
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