UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 is live from the fight capital of the world at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as we’re set for another betting prediction and pick. A featherweight (145) bout of monster proportion will take place as title challenger No. 3 Brian Ortega takes on rapidly rising prospect No. 14 Diego Lopes. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ortega-Lopes prediction and pick.

Brian Ortega (16-3) has gone 8-3-0-1 during his illustrious UFC career as a former title challenger. After falling to Alexander Volkanovski in his most recent title shot, Ortega had to overcome injury prior to a rematch with Yair Rodriguez. He excelled with a submission finish and will now look to stamp yet another title ticket with a win here. Ortega stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.

Diego Lopes (24-6) has gone 3-1 during his frantic run in the UFC since 2023. A full-time coach and trainer for fellow fighters, he’s now won his last three consecutive fights, finishing each one of them in the first round. While it’s a fast rise, Lopes could ensure himself a title shot if he’s able to step-in on short notice and take down a legend of the division. Lopes stands 5’11” with a 72.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 303 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC 303 Odds: Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Odds

Brian Ortega: +120

Diego Lopes: -140

Over 1.5 rounds: -215

Under 1.5 rounds: +175

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Why Brian Ortega Will Win

Brian Ortega really showed his determination as a competitor coming back from a tough injury and finishing Yair Rodriguez with a signature triangle choke in their rematch. He looks better than he ever has and it’s clear he’s found a great mental headspace over his last few camps. Getting this call on two weeks notice, Ortega is no stranger to an accelerated fight camp. He’s been in this game for a long time and his experience in high-stakes bouts will only benefit him against a fresher fighter like Lopes. Ortega is also one of the very few men in this division that can match the jiu jitsu of Diego Lopes, so he’s fully confident his skills will carry him in this fight.

Brian Ortega looked a lot more composed during his fight against Yair Rodriguez and his game planning to counter Yair’s wild style worked to a tee. Ortega also has much more experience as a kickboxer than his opponent, so he’ll be more than willing to let Lopes stand in front of him as he picks his shots. This fight will be all about staying calm and collected through the storm for Ortega, while looking for that small opening to catch Lopes and finish the fight.

Why Diego Lopes Will Win

Diego Lopes was very eager to take this fight when receiving the call two weeks ago and given his last three performances, he’s ready to impress with another wild finish to earn his eventual title fight. As a jiu jitsu coach for several fighters, Lopes is constantly training and learning new skills everyday. His fight-IQ is through the roof and he’s extremely dangerous through every second of the fight. His jiu jitsu is second-to-none, but he’ll have his most formidable opponent to date in Brian Ortega. Still, this is just another fight for Lopes and he knows his destiny is to eventually fight for the belt.

Despite his skills on the ground, Diego Lopes is non-complacent and has been working constantly to evolve his striking. He’s won his last two fights using his striking and following up with ground strikes. If he’s able to find even a sliver of advantageous ground control, Lopes will take it instantly and use his fists to finish the job. Couple all of this with his training alongside Women’s Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso, and Diego Lopes is fully invested in this moment.

Final Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick

This is arguably the closest fight on this card in terms of matchmaking given both fighters’ extreme skill on the ground with their jiu jitsu. Both men are lethal when it comes to finding submissions and neither will be willing to give an inch on the ground. If these two choose to grapple, wrestling and jiu jitsu fans will be in for a treat.

Both men got the call two weeks ago for this fight and both seem confident in their skills against each other. Brian Ortega put together a quick camp, something he’s had experience doing. This isn’t his first rodeo and he’s accustomed to this type of pressure.

Diego Lopes has been constantly training and took this fight very eagerly. His hitting his peak in terms of performance and it seems as though he’s been ready for this moment for a long time. I expect a very close bout and we could see this go the distance given the respect both men have. It may be a matter of who finds a submission, but I like Diego Lopes to find the win here as the slight favorite. He’s peaking at the right time and I expect him to get his title shot following this win.

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Final Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Prediction & Pick: Diego Lopes (-140)