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UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura continues on the prelims with a fight in the lightweight division between Clay Guida and Chase Hooper. Guida has hit a rough patch losing each of his last two fights meanwhile, Hooper how now won three in a row and is currently on his longest UFC win streak coming into this fight. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Guida-Hooper prediction and pick.
Clay Guida (38-24) is a mainstay in the lightweight division as this will be his 37th fight inside the Octagon this weekend. He has now lost two in a row putting him in danger of losing three in a row and now has an overall UFC record of 18-18. “The Carpenter” will be looking to keep his UFC hopes alive when he takes on Chase Hooper this weekend at UFC 310.
Chase Hooper (14-3-1) made the right career decision when he decided to move up in weight where he is now 3-0 since becoming a lightweight. He comes into this fight with back-to-back finishes for the first time in his UFC career as he looks to extend what is already the longest winning streak of his UFC career when he steps inside the Octagon at the T-Mobile Arena against Clay Guida this weekend.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Clay Guida-Chase Hooper Odds
Clay Guida: +700
Chase Hooper: -1100
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
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Why Clay Guida Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Joaquim Silva – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 21 ( 5 KO/TKO/16 SUB)
Despite being the underdog, Clay Guida has the tools and experience to pull off an upset against Chase Hooper at UFC 310. The 42-year-old veteran's relentless pace and impressive cardio could prove crucial in this lightweight bout. Guida's wrestling prowess, with 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 67% takedown defense, gives him a significant advantage over Hooper's 55% takedown defense. “The Carpenter” can utilize his grappling to control the fight, potentially neutralizing Hooper's submission attempts and wearing him down over three rounds.
Furthermore, Guida's striking output and aggression could be the difference maker in this matchup. This striking edge, combined with Guida's veteran savvy and ability to absorb punishment, could frustrate the younger fighter and disrupt his rhythm. While Hooper has shown improvement, Guida's wealth of experience against top-tier competition gives him the mental edge to weather early storms and capitalize on mistakes. Suppose Guida can avoid Hooper's submission attempts and implement his grinding, high-pressure style. In that case, he has a real chance to secure a hard-fought decision victory and prove that experience still trumps youth in the Octagon.
Why Chase Hooper Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Viacheslav Borshchev – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (4 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Chase Hooper is poised to continue his impressive lightweight run against veteran Clay Guida at UFC 310. The 25-year-old submission specialist enters this bout riding a three-fight win streak, showcasing significant improvements in his striking and overall game. Hooper's striking accuracy of 52% and output of 5.08 significant strikes per minute dwarf Guida's 33% accuracy and 2.64 strikes per minute, indicating a clear advantage on the feet. Moreover, Hooper's 6-inch height advantage and 4-inch reach edge will allow him to control distance and pick apart the shorter Guida.
While Guida's wrestling pedigree is noteworthy, Hooper's grappling skills are equally formidable. “The Dream” attempts 2.3 submissions per 15 minutes compared to Guida's 0.6, suggesting a more aggressive and dangerous ground game. Hooper has already proven he can handle Guida's grappling, having defeated him in a 2022 grappling match via calf slicer. With Guida showing signs of decline, losing three of his last four fights, Hooper's youth, improving skillset, and recent momentum gives him a significant edge. Expect Hooper to utilize his reach advantage to frustrate Guida on the feet before potentially securing a submission victory, further cementing his status as a rising lightweight contender.
Final Clay Guida-Chase Hooper Prediction & Pick
Clay “The Carpenter” Guida may be on his last legs in his UFC career but one thing is for certain, he will give Chase Hooper a tough fight to the very end making for an entertaining clash in this lightweight matchup ultimately, while it's not for the faint at heart to wager on a massive favorite which is why we lean to the prop here with Chase Hooper by submission. Hooper has finished 7 of his 14 victories by submission and Guida's biggest glaring weakness is his submission defense where he has been submitted 11 times in his career. Expect a high output early from Guida until Hooper settles in, gets the takedown, and eventually snatches a limb notching his eighth submission in his career and fourth win in a row.
Final Clay Guida-Chase Hooper Prediction & Pick: Chase Hooper by Submission (-165), Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
