The Georgia State Panthers take on the Auburn Tigers. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Georgia State Auburn prediction and pick.
Georgia State has a 5-4 record through nine games, but a few details need to be mentioned about the Panthers' overall portfolio through the first five weeks of the season. First, Georgia State has won twice against non-Division I opponents. Only three of its victories have been Division I foes. Second, Georgia State has not beaten any especially strong teams this season. The best win on the slate is a victory over UNC-Asheville, a team which defeated UCF from the AAC. There isn't a lot of meat on the bone when talking about the quality of Georgia State's wins or its overall opponents. Georgia State has lost to Eastern Kentucky, Belmont, Northeastern, and Georgia Tech so far this season. It has been a rough ride for GSU. That Georgia Tech game was extremely close and slipped away from the Panthers in the final moments.
Auburn has only one loss this season, but the Tigers have, in all candor, not played as well as their 8-1 record might suggest. They beat Northwestern 43-42 in a very poorly-played game. They were able to survive Saint Louis by five points, and they defeated South Florida by eight. None of the eight teams Auburn has defeated are NCAA Tournament locks. Lots of other nationally-ranked teams have a far better resume through five weeks than Bruce Pearl's Tigers. Auburn has a lot of work to do in terms of solidifying its place in the NCAA Tournament and getting a reasonably high seed after winning the SEC championship and earning a No. 2 NCAA seed one season ago.
Here are the Georgia State-Auburn NCAA Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Georgia State-Auburn Odds
Georgia State Panthers: +19.5 (-105)
Auburn Tigers: -19.5 (-115)
Over: 133.5 (-115)
Under: 133.5 (-105)
Why Georgia State Could Cover the Spread
The Auburn Tigers are preparing for this game, but they know that just around the corner, on Sunday afternoon, they will be in Los Angeles for an intersectional battle against USC. The Tigers could easily think about that game and their upcoming plane flight. They are coming off a loss to Memphis in Atlanta which could cause them to worry about how good they are and how many problems they need to address. This is a trap game for Auburn, precisely the kind of situation which the Tigers could deliver a distracted and less-than-fully-focused performance.
The other point to make about this game is that Auburn allowed Memphis to hit 50 percent of its field goal attempts this past Saturday. Auburn was a really good defensive team one year ago under Bruce Pearl. The Tigers have not found a real groove at the defensive end of the floor, and that's a very good reason to take Georgia State plus the points with a very large spread.
Why Auburn Could Cover the Spread
Auburn finally lost a game. That should wake up the Tigers, who have not been at their best this season. They were 8-0 but had not reached their potential or played especially close to their ceiling. Getting a loss should be the kick in the pants the Tigers need in order to significantly raise their level of play. It's what this team probably needed in order to fix problems and establish itself at a much higher level of play. We should see that manifest itself in this game.
The other point to make is that Bruce Pearl has done a very good job at Auburn, leading the Tigers to the 2019 Final Four and then to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season. Auburn has become one of the SEC's best basketball programs for a reason. This doesn't happen by accident. When Auburn goes through a bad patch, Pearl has regularly shown that he can get his teams to improve and evolve. That should translate into a blowout win here.
Final Georgia State-Auburn Prediction & Pick
Even though Auburn is much better, the trap-game nature of this contest will probably lead to a performance which is 60 percent of what Auburn is capable of. Take Georgia State.
Final Georgia State-Auburn Prediction & Pick: Georgia State +19.5
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