The Baylor Bears take on the Texas Longhorns. Check out our college football odds series for our Baylor Texas prediction and pick.

The Baylor Bears had an eight-point lead over the TCU Horned Frogs late in the fourth quarter last week. The Bears have had a very difficult season, but they were about to salvage it with an upset of a bitter in-state rival which used to play Baylor when the two schools were in the old Southwest Conference. The grievances and animosities run deep between Baylor and TCU. Knocking the Horned Frogs out of the College Footbal Playoff would have been very sweet.

Then everything fell apart in the final minutes. The Bears allowed a touchdown. TCU missed the 2-point conversion, but Baylor had to get another first down to seal the win. It couldn’t do it. TCU got the ball back and drove down the field and ran its field goal unit on without a timeout in the final 10 seconds. The Horned Frogs made a field goal on the final play to stun Baylor, 29-28. The Bears have been a “close but not quite” kind of team for much of the season. They have been competitive but have not been able to close down the 50-50 games on their schedule. Coach Dave Aranda was able to master the small margins between victory and defeat a year ago, en route to the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl. This year, Baylor has lived on the wrong side of those margins.

Texas has endured another disappointing season, though it has to be said that this particular journey is comparatively less disappointing than other recent seasons in Austin. Texas has a talented freshman quarterback, Quinn Ewers, who will have a bowl game to look forward to. He can practice in December, then go into spring ball as a significantly improved quarterback who can polish his skills and harness his instincts for his sophomore season in 2023. Texas has recruited well under coach Steve Sarkisian, setting up the distinct possibility that it could bring home good results next year. However, fans on the 40 Acres are tired of thinking about next year. They want this year to be successful. Texas can do no better than 8-4 in the 12-game regular season. That’s not successful.

Here are the Baylor-Texas NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: Baylor-Texas Odds

Baylor Bears: +8.5 (-110)

Texas Longhorns: -8.5 (-110)

Over: 55.5 (-106)

Under: 55.5 (-114)

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Bears are getting more than a touchdown against a Texas team which has lost four games and has been manifestly inconsistent this season. Baylor has had a hard time winning games this season, but playing good teams close has not been BU’s main problem. Dave Aranda will have this team prepared for Texas and will put up a very good fight, win or lose.

Why Texas Could Cover the Spread

Baylor left everything it had on the field against TCU, and came up short. Baylor will be physically and emotionally spent, enabling Texas — which had a very easy and comfortable game last week against Kansas — to roar past the Bears and win this game decisively.

Final Baylor-Texas Prediction & Pick

This is a stay-away game, because both teams are fundamentally unreliable. If you insist on a pick, the theory of the case attached to Baylor is slightly more convincing than the Texas case … but again, you shouldn’t place much confidence in either team.

Final Baylor-Texas Prediction & Pick: Baylor +8.5