Welcome back college football fans! Week 2 of the season gets underway on Friday as the Boise State Broncos gear up for their first conference game as they travel to Albuquerque to square off with the New Mexico Lobos. Join us for our college football odds series, where our Boise State-New Mexico prediction and pick will be revealed.
After serving as the visiting team in their ugly opening loss to Oregon State by a score of 34-17, the Broncos will head back out on the road in hopes to rewrite some of their wrongs from a week ago. With backup quarterback Taylen Green most likely getting the start on Friday after he was inserted into the lineup for the majority of the second half, the Broncos are expecting more from their offense in this contest.
Unlike the Broncos, the Lobos of New Mexico were able to take care of business in their season opener after blasting the FCS Maine Bears 41-0 last weekend. While their opponent wasn't nearly as challenging as what Boise State had to face, New Mexico still looked the part of a team that can show flashes of productive offense and even stingy defense in 2022.
Here are the Boise State-New Mexico NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Boise State-New Mexico Odds
Boise State Broncos: -16.5 (-118)
New Mexico Lobos: +16.5 (-104)
Over: 43.5 (114)
Under: 43.5 (106)
Why Boise State Could Cover The Spread
Without a doubt, Boise State will need to find some more stability at the quarterback position, as both Hank Bachmeier and QB Taylen Green both struggled way too often to move the ball down the field at an efficient rate. Before the Broncos even had a chance to blink, they found themselves down at the break 24-0 and needed a small miracle to get back into the game.
Conversely, multiple-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was replaced by Taylen Green to try to revive the offense. It wasn't shortly after that Green showed off his dual-threat ability at the quarterback position with an electrifying 74-yard-run late in the third quarter that proved to be the Broncos' first time reaching the end zone this season. Not to mention, but Green found pay dirt a second time on the night after a four-yard scamper in the early stages of the fourth that clipped the Beavers' lead to ten points.
When the dust had settled, Green finished the night completing 19-28 of his passes for 155 yards and also eclipsed the century mark on the ground with 102 yards on 11 carries including a pair of rushing touchdowns. Even though the Broncos ended up falling short in their season opener, the Broncos should feel encouraged that they may have found a true game changer at quarterback.
In order to cover the spread in Albuquerque on Friday, the Broncos must figure out a way to limit the turnovers and take better care of the ball. The Broncos had five giveaways on the night thus setting up Oregon State perfectly for points. Clearly, this is not a recipe for success if they want to be an improved squad when they meet up with New Mexico for a Mountain West showdown out on the gridiron.
Why New Mexico Could Cover The Spread
Riding high off an utterly dominant 41-0 outing in week 1, the Lobos feel confident that they can hang with a Boise State team that is usually one of the more well-rounded rosters in all of the conference. With an abundance of confidence for second-year head coach Danny Gonzales, can the Lobos figure out a way to cover the spread and defeat the Broncos for the first time since 2015?
For starters, it was the New Mexico defense that inflicted the most damage upon Maine a week ago. When the clock hit triple zeroes, the Bears had only mustered 118 total yards of offense against a gritty New Mexico defense. Now serving as a massive +17 point spread underdog against the Broncos, the Lobos will be faced with a much greater challenge. Ideally, New Mexico must also play a clean 60 minutes with the ball in their possession. Last week, the Lobos averaged six yards per play, but they were still far too sloppy. New Mexico endured a pair of interceptions thrown by quarterback Miles Kendrick and even fumbled the ball three times in the second half, all of which were fortunately recovered by the Lobos.
Additionally, it is a must for New Mexico to win the special teams battle. Last year against Boise State, the Lobos saw two of their punts get blocked for touchdowns and were down for the count early from the get-go. Avoiding these critical mistakes will be vital if New Mexico wants any chance.
Final Boise State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
Historically, this has been a matchup that just hasn't been very close. Even though this game looks competitive on paper, the Broncos' talent advantage should be a major factor as they should cover the -16.5 point spread on the road barring a complete meltdown in Albuquerque. Hammer the Broncos and their ability to get back on track in this one.
Final Boise State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: Boise State -16.5 (-118)
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